相关论文: Applying the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient…

We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient ($WG_{M}$), introduced in Korsos et al (2015), for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue.…

There is a wide range of eruptions in the solar atmosphere which contribute to space weather, including the major explosions of radiation known as flares. To examine pre-event behavior in delta-spot regions, we use here a method based on…

In this article, we present the application of the weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (WGM) flare prediction method to 3-dimensional (3D) extrapolated magnetic configurations of 13 flaring solar active regions (ARs). The main…

The forecast method introduced by Kors\'os et al.(2014) is generalised from the horizontal magnetic gradient (GM), defined between two opposite polarity spots, to all spots within an appropriately defined region close to the magnetic…

We present a combined analysis of the applications of the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (denoted as WG_M in Korsos et al., ApJ, 802, L21, 2015) method and the magnetic helicity tool (Berger & Field, JFM, 147, 133, 1984) employed for…

We apply a novel pre-flare tracking of sunspot groups towards improving the estimation of flare onset time by focusing on the evolution of the 3D magnetic field construction of AR 11429. The 3D magnetic structure is based on potential field…

Four different methods are applied here to study the precursors of flare activity in the Active Region NOAA 10486. Two approaches track the temporal behaviour of suitably chosen features (one, the weighted horizontal gradient WGM, is…

Several papers provide evidences that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare producing areas the present work intends to…

It is widely assumed that the most probable sites of flare occurrences are the locations of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in the active regions. Instead of magnetograms the present work checks this assumption by using sunspot…

The R-value is a measure of the strength of photospheric magnetic Polarity Inversion Lines (PILs) in Active Regions (ARs). This work investigates the possibility of a relation between R-value variations and the occurrence of X-class flares…

Efficient prediction of solar flares relies on parameters that quantify the eruptive capability of solar active regions. Several such quantitative predictors have been proposed in the literature, inferred mostly from photospheric…

In general relativistic magneto-hydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations, accreted magnetic flux on the black hole horizon episodically decays, during which magnetic reconnection heats up the plasma near the horizon, potentially powering…

Solar flares emanate from solar active regions hosting complex and strong bipolar magnetic fluxes. Estimating the probability of an active region to flare and defining reliable precursors of intense flares is an extremely challenging task…

Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the…

Whilst the most dynamic solar active regions (ARs) are known to flare frequently, predicting the occurrence of individual flares and their magnitude, is very much a developing field with strong potentials for machine learning applications.…

Current operational forecasts of solar eruptions are made by human experts using a combination of qualitative shape-based classification systems and historical data about flaring frequencies. In the past decade, there has been a great deal…

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI…

Solar flares are generally believed to be powered by free magnetic energy stored in the corona, but the build up of coronal energy alone may be insufficient for the imminent flare occurrence. The flare onset mechanism is a critical but less…

Solar flares create adverse space weather impacting space and Earth-based technologies. However, the difficulty of forecasting flares, and by extension severe space weather, is accentuated by the lack of any unique flare trigger or a single…

We present a new simulation setup using the MURaM radiative Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code that allows to study the formation of collisional polarity inversion lines (cPILs) in the photosphere and the coronal response including flares. In…