相关论文: Large-Scale Dynamic Predictive Regressions

Long-term time-series forecasting is essential for planning and decision-making in economics, energy, and transportation, where long foresight is required. To obtain such long foresight, models must be both efficient and effective in…

We study a norm for structured sparsity which leads to sparse linear predictors whose supports are unions of prede ned overlapping groups of variables. We call the obtained formulation latent group Lasso, since it is based on applying the…

Categorical predictors are omnipresent in everyday regression practice: in fact, most regression data involve some categorical predictors, and this tendency is increasing in modern applications with more complex structures and larger data…

It is well-known that the statistical performance of Lasso can suffer significantly when the covariates of interest have strong correlations. In particular, the prediction error of Lasso becomes much worse than computationally inefficient…

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

We introduce a self-consistent deep-learning framework which, for a noisy deterministic time series, provides unsupervised filtering, state-space reconstruction, identification of the underlying differential equations and forecasting.…

Sparse prediction with categorical data is challenging even for a moderate number of variables, because one parameter is roughly needed to encode one category or level. The Group Lasso is a well known efficient algorithm for selection…

Delay embedding---a method for reconstructing dynamical systems by delay coordinates---is widely used to forecast nonlinear time series as a model-free approach. When multivariate time series are observed, several existing frameworks can be…

Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis is a formal approach to coherently synthesizing multiple predictive distributions into a single distribution. In sequential analysis, the computation of the synthesized predictive distribution has…

We consider the problem of multivariate regression in a setting where the relevant predictors could be shared among different responses. We propose an algorithm which decomposes the coefficient matrix into the product of a long matrix and a…

Irregular multivariate time series impose a trade-off for long-horizon forecasting: discrete methods can distort temporal structure via re-gridding, while continuous-time models often require sequential solvers prone to drift. To bridge…

We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the…

Longitudinal data are important in numerous fields, such as healthcare, sociology and seismology, but real-world datasets present notable challenges for practitioners because they can be high-dimensional, contain structured missingness…

Given a reference model that includes all the available variables, projection predictive inference replaces its posterior with a constrained projection including only a subset of all variables. We extend projection predictive inference to…

Synthetic datasets are important for evaluating and testing machine learning models. When evaluating real-life recommender systems, high-dimensional categorical (and sparse) datasets are often considered. Unfortunately, there are not many…

We study sparse group Lasso for high-dimensional double sparse linear regression, where the parameter of interest is simultaneously element-wise and group-wise sparse. This problem is an important instance of the simultaneously structured…

Sparsity-promoting priors have become increasingly popular over recent years due to an increased number of regression and classification applications involving a large number of predictors. In time series applications where observations are…

Trend change prediction in complex systems with a large number of noisy time series is a problem with many applications for real-world phenomena, with stock markets as a notoriously difficult to predict example of such systems. We approach…

The demand of probabilistic time series forecasting has been recently raised in various dynamic system scenarios, for example, system identification and prognostic and health management of machines. To this end, we combine the advances in…

Volatility forecasts are key inputs in financial analysis. While lasso based forecasts have shown to perform well in many applications, their use to obtain volatility forecasts has not yet received much attention in the literature. Lasso…