相关论文: Interval-based Prediction Uncertainty Bound Comput…

Instrumental variable methods are among the most commonly used causal inference approaches to deal with unmeasured confounders in observational studies. The presence of invalid instruments is the primary concern for practical applications,…

In the context of multivariate nonparametric regression with missing covariates, we propose Pattern Embedded Neural Networks (PENNs), which can be applied in conjunction with any existing imputation technique. In addition to a neural…

We study the problem of monitoring machine learning models under gradual distribution shifts, where circumstances change slowly over time, often leading to unnoticed yet significant declines in accuracy. To address this, we propose…

Learning structures between groups of variables from data with missing values is an important task in the real world, yet difficult to solve. One typical scenario is discovering the structure among topics in the education domain to identify…

The use of flexible machine-learning (ML) models to generate imputations of missing data within the framework of Multiple Imputation (MI) has recently gained traction, particularly in observational settings. For randomised controlled trials…

This essay looks at decision-making with interval-valued probability measures. Existing decision methods have either supplemented expected utility methods with additional criteria of optimality, or have attempted to supplement the…

Existing approaches of prescriptive analytics -- where inputs of an optimization model can be predicted by leveraging covariates in a machine learning model -- often attempt to optimize the mean value of an uncertain objective. However,…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods typically require fully observed data to infer parameters of models with intractable likelihood functions. However, datasets often contain missing values due to incomplete observations, data…

This paper proposes a multi-step probabilistic forecasting framework using a single neural-network based model to generate simultaneous point and interval forecasts. Our approach ensures non-crossing prediction intervals (PIs) through a…

Unbiased assessment of the predictivity of models learnt by supervised machine-learning methods requires knowledge of the learned function over a reserved test set (not used by the learning algorithm). The quality of the assessment depends,…

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

In this paper, we approach the problem of uncertainty quantification in deep learning through a predictive framework, which captures uncertainty in model parameters by specifying our assumptions about the predictive distribution of unseen…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have successfully learned useful data representations in various tasks. However, assessing the reliability of these representations remains a challenge. Deep Ensemble is widely considered the state-of-the-art…

The problem of choosing appropriate values for missing data is often encountered in the data science. We describe a novel method containing both traditional mathematics and machine learning elements for prediction (imputation) of missing…

This paper proposes a paradigm of uncertainty injection for training deep learning model to solve robust optimization problems. The majority of existing studies on deep learning focus on the model learning capability, while assuming the…

In machine learning, accurately predicting the probability that a specific input is correct is crucial for risk management. This process, known as uncertainty (or confidence) estimation, is particularly important in mission-critical…

Machine unlearning is the process of efficiently removing specific information from a trained machine learning model without retraining from scratch. Existing unlearning methods, which often provide provable guarantees, typically involve…

Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a popular propensity score (PS)-based approach to estimate causal effects in observational studies at risk of confounding bias. A major issue when estimating the PS is the presence of…

Time series forecasting enables early warning and has driven asset performance management from traditional planned maintenance to predictive maintenance. However, the lack of interpretability in forecasting methods undermines users' trust…

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…