相关论文: Bayesian regional flood frequency analysis for lar…

Flood prediction is critical for emergency planning and response to mitigate human and economic losses. Traditional physics-based hydrodynamic models generate high-resolution flood maps using numerical methods requiring fine-grid…

Multivariate extreme value models are used to estimate joint risk in a number of applications, with a particular focus on environmental fields ranging from climatology and hydrology to oceanography and seismic hazards. The semi-parametric…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

Learning hydrologic models for accurate riverine flood prediction at scale is a challenge of great importance. One of the key difficulties is the need to rely on in-situ river discharge measurements, which can be quite scarce and…

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…

A hierarchical Bayesian approach that permits simultaneous inference for the regression coefficient matrix and the error precision (inverse covariance) matrix in the multivariate linear model is proposed. Assuming a natural ordering of the…

Post-earthquake hazard and impact estimation are critical for effective disaster response, yet current approaches face significant limitations. Traditional models employ fixed parameters regardless of geographical context, misrepresenting…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

In this work, Bayesian inversion with global-local forwards models is used to identify the parameters based on hydraulic fractures in porous media. It is well-known that using Bayesian inversion to identify material parameters is…

Deep learning models have become increasingly popular for flood prediction due to their superior accuracy and efficiency compared to traditional methods. However, current machine learning methods often rely on separate spatial or temporal…

We discuss the issue of estimating large-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility in real-time situations where data are sampled at different frequencies. In the case of a large VAR with stochastic volatility, the…

With the introduction of the variational autoencoder (VAE), probabilistic latent variable models have received renewed attention as powerful generative models. However, their performance in terms of test likelihood and quality of generated…

In this technical report we compare different deep learning models for prediction of water depth rasters at high spatial resolution. Efficient, accurate, and fast methods for water depth prediction are nowadays important as urban floods are…

Deep super-resolution networks for precipitation downscaling achieve strong bulk skill yet systematically under-predict the heavy-tail events that drive flood risk. We demonstrate that the primary obstacle is the loss function, not the…

Accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities like runoff or water level are beneficial to various areas of society. Probabilistic state-of-the-art hydrological ensemble prediction models are usually driven with…

We develop a flexible spline-based Bayesian hidden Markov model stochastic weather generator to statistically model daily precipitation over time by season at individual locations. The model naturally accounts for missing data (considered…

Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of…

Floods cause extensive global damage annually, making effective monitoring essential. While satellite observations have proven invaluable for flood detection and tracking, comprehensive global flood datasets spanning extended time periods…

Extreme value theory is concerned with probabilistic and statistical questions related to very high or very low values in sequences of random variables and in stochastic processes. The subject has a rich mathematical theory and also a long…

Considering the flexibility and applicability of Bayesian modeling, in this work we revise the main characteristics of two hierarchical models in a regression setting. We study the full probabilistic structure of the models along with the…