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Artificial intelligence (AI)-based data-driven weather forecasting models have experienced rapid progress over the last years. Recent studies, with models trained on reanalysis data, achieve impressive results and demonstrate substantial…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-04-02 Christopher Bülte , Nina Horat , Julian Quinting , Sebastian Lerch

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly assisting users in the real world, yet their reliability remains a concern. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has been heralded as a tool to enhance human-LLM collaboration by enabling users to…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-06-10 Siddartha Devic , Tejas Srinivasan , Jesse Thomason , Willie Neiswanger , Vatsal Sharan

We describe a computational framework linking Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods for continuum problems depending on random parameters with Equation-Free (EF) methods for performing continuum deterministic numerics by acting directly…

动力系统 · 数学 2007-05-23 Yu Zou , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

We extended the existing methodology in Bound-to-Bound Data Collaboration (B2BDC), an optimization-based deterministic uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, to explicitly take into account model discrepancy. The discrepancy was…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2020-02-06 Wenyu Li , Arun Hegde , James Oreluk , Andrew Packard , Michael Frenklach

Large language Models (LLMs) have achieved significant breakthroughs across diverse domains; however, they can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs. For responsible LLM application, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-15 Qihao Wen , Jiahao Wang , Yang Nan , Pengfei He , Ravi Tandon , Han Xu

For many applications, analyzing the uncertainty of a machine learning model is indispensable. While research of uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques is very advanced for computer vision applications, UQ methods for spatio-temporal…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-10-08 Andreas Klaß , Sven M. Lorenz , Martin W. Lauer-Schmaltz , David Rügamer , Bernd Bischl , Christopher Mutschler , Felix Ott

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a prominent class of data-driven methods for molecular property prediction. However, a key limitation of typical GNN models is their inability to quantify uncertainties in the predictions. This…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-02 Shengli Jiang , Shiyi Qin , Reid C. Van Lehn , Prasanna Balaprakash , Victor M. Zavala

Estimating parameters from data is a fundamental problem, customarily done by minimizing a loss function between a model and observed statistics. In scattering-based analysis, researchers often employ their domain expertise to select a…

计算物理 · 物理学 2024-09-05 Mengyang Gu , Yue He , Xubo Liu , Yimin Luo

This paper provides a tutorial about uncertainty quantification (UQ) for those who have no background but are interested in learning more in this area. It exploits many very simple examples, which are understandable to undergraduates, to…

动力系统 · 数学 2025-10-07 Nan Chen , Stephen Wiggins , Marios Andreou

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among many complex systems in science and engineering. The existence of a strange attractor in the turbulent…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2018-02-23 Andrew J. Majda , Di Qi

Data science and informatics tools have been proliferating recently within the computational materials science and catalysis fields. This proliferation has spurned the creation of various frameworks for automated materials screening,…

材料科学 · 物理学 2020-02-21 Kevin Tran , Willie Neiswanger , Junwoong Yoon , Qingyang Zhang , Eric Xing , Zachary W. Ulissi

In the critical task of making generative models trustworthy and robust, methods for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) have begun to show encouraging potential. However, many of these methods rely on rigid heuristics that fail to generalize…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-17 Souradeep Chattopadhyay , Brendan Kennedy , Sai Munikoti , Soumik Sarkar , Karl Pazdernik

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides a resource-efficient solution for on-device monitoring of tinyML models deployed without access to true labels. However, existing UQ methods impose significant memory and compute demands, making them…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-19 Nikhil P Ghanathe , Steven J E Wilton

Large language models (LLMs) specializing in natural language generation (NLG) have recently started exhibiting promising capabilities across a variety of domains. However, gauging the trustworthiness of responses generated by LLMs remains…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-05-21 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

When implementing prediction models for high-stakes real-world applications such as medicine, finance, and autonomous systems, quantifying prediction uncertainty is critical for effective risk management. Traditional approaches to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-04-29 Junting Ren , Armin Schwartzman

Estimating uncertainty is at the core of performing scientific measurements in HEP: a measurement is not useful without an estimate of its uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is inextricably linked to the question, "how…

高能物理 - 实验 · 物理学 2022-11-02 Thomas Y. Chen , Biprateep Dey , Aishik Ghosh , Michael Kagan , Brian Nord , Nesar Ramachandra

Applications, ranging from tracking molecular motion within cells to analyzing complex animal foraging behavior, require algorithms for associating a collection of spot-like particles in one image with particles contained in another image.…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2013-04-23 Alexander Mont , Aubrey V. Wiegel , Diego Krapf , Christopher P. Calderon

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has emerged as a promising approach for detecting hallucinations and low-quality output of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, obtaining proper uncertainty scores is complicated by the conditional…

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