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In this work we build a stack of machine learning models aimed at composing a state-of-the-art credit rating and default prediction system, obtaining excellent out-of-sample performances. Our approach is an excursion through the most recent…

We propose a novel reduction-to-binary (R2B) approach that enforces demographic parity for multiclass classification with non-binary sensitive attributes via a reduction to a sequence of binary debiasing tasks. We prove that R2B satisfies…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-11 Ibrahim Alabdulmohsin , Jessica Schrouff , Oluwasanmi Koyejo

A key problem in computational sustainability is to understand the distribution of species across landscapes over time. This question gives rise to challenging large-scale prediction problems since (i) hundreds of species have to be…

Classification predictive modeling involves the accurate assignment of observations in a dataset to target classes or categories. There is an increasing growth of real-world classification problems with severely imbalanced class…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-01-03 Banghee So , Emiliano A. Valdez

Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs) are widely used for building ranking and relevance models in search and recommendation. Considerations such as latency and interpretability dictate the use of as few features as possible to train…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-09-07 Cuize Han , Nikhil Rao , Daria Sorokina , Karthik Subbian

In this paper we introduce a significant improvement to the popular tree-based Stochastic Gradient Boosting algorithm using a wavelet decomposition of the trees. This approach is based on harmonic analysis and approximation theoretical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-05-06 Shai Dekel , Oren Elisha , Ohad Morgan

Dealing with severe class imbalance poses a major challenge for real-world applications, especially when the accurate classification and generalization of minority classes is of primary interest. In computer vision, learning from long…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2021-11-22 Zidi Xiu , Junya Chen , Ricardo Henao , Benjamin Goldstein , Lawrence Carin , Chenyang Tao

Stochastic Gradient TreeBoost is often found in many winning solutions in public data science challenges. Unfortunately, the best performance requires extensive parameter tuning and can be prone to overfitting. We propose PaloBoost, a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-07-24 Yubin Park , Joyce C. Ho

The gradient boosting machine is one of the powerful tools for solving regression problems. In order to cope with its shortcomings, an approach for constructing ensembles of gradient boosting models is proposed. The main idea behind the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-14 Andrei V. Konstantinov , Lev V. Utkin

Within machine learning, the supervised learning field aims at modeling the input-output relationship of a system, from past observations of its behavior. Decision trees characterize the input-output relationship through a series of nested…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-05-20 Arnaud Joly

In performative prediction, the deployment of a predictive model triggers a shift in the data distribution. As these shifts are typically unknown ahead of time, the learner needs to deploy a model to get feedback about the distribution it…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-19 Meena Jagadeesan , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner

The goal in label-imbalanced and group-sensitive classification is to optimize relevant metrics such as balanced error and equal opportunity. Classical methods, such as weighted cross-entropy, fail when training deep nets to the terminal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-09 Ganesh Ramachandra Kini , Orestis Paraskevas , Samet Oymak , Christos Thrampoulidis

Fitted probabilities from widely used Bayesian multinomial probit models can depend strongly on the choice of a base category, which is used to uniquely identify the parameters of the model. This paper proposes a novel identification…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-05-19 Lane F. Burgette , David Puelz , P. Richard Hahn

In neural networks with binary activations and or binary weights the training by gradient descent is complicated as the model has piecewise constant response. We consider stochastic binary networks, obtained by adding noises in front of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-11-05 Alexander Shekhovtsov , Viktor Yanush , Boris Flach

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-12-19 Pascal Kündig , Fabio Sigrist

Label noise, which refers to the mislabeling of instances in a dataset, can significantly impair classifier performance, increase model complexity, and affect feature selection. While most research has concentrated on deep neural networks…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-07 Anita Eisenbürger , Daniel Otten , Anselm Hudde , Frank Hopfgartner

Models with a large number of latent variables are often used to fully utilize the information in big or complex data. However, they can be difficult to estimate using standard approaches, and variational inference methods are a popular…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-04-20 Rubén Loaiza-Maya , Michael Stanley Smith , David J. Nott , Peter J. Danaher

We present an algorithm for learning decision trees using stochastic gradient information as the source of supervision. In contrast to previous approaches to gradient-based tree learning, our method operates in the incremental learning…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-25 Henry Gouk , Bernhard Pfahringer , Eibe Frank

In the area of credit risk analytics, current Bankruptcy Prediction Models (BPMs) struggle with (a) the availability of comprehensive and real-world data sets and (b) the presence of extreme class imbalance in the data (i.e., very few…

Inferring the true demand for a product or a service from aggregate data is often challenging due to the limited available supply, thus resulting in observations that are censored and correspond to the realized demand, thereby not…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-22 Filipe Rodrigues