相关论文: Dynamic quantile linear models: a Bayesian approac…

We consider generalizations of the classical inverse problem to Bayesien type estimators, where the result is not one optimal parameter but an optimal probability distribution in parameter space. The practical computational tool to compute…

In many application areas, data are collected on a categorical response and high-dimensional categorical predictors, with the goals being to build a parsimonious model for classification while doing inferences on the important predictors.…

Copula-based models provide a great deal of flexibility in modelling multivariate distributions, allowing for the specifications of models for the marginal distributions separately from the dependence structure (copula) that links them to…

It is desirable to have accurate uncertainty estimation from a single deterministic forward-pass model, as traditional methods for uncertainty quantification are computationally expensive. However, this is difficult because single…

Due to the escalating growth of big data sets in recent years, new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parallel computing methods have been developed. These methods partition large data sets by observations into subsets. However, for…

Many biological networks include cyclic structures. In such cases, Bayesian networks (BNs), which must be acyclic, are not sound models for structure learning. Dynamic BNs can be used but require relatively large time series data. We…

Many natural systems, such as neurons firing in the brain or basketball teams traversing a court, give rise to time series data with complex, nonlinear dynamics. We can gain insight into these systems by decomposing the data into segments…

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to the problem of variable selection in multiple linear regression models. In particular, we present a hierarchical setting which allows for direct specification of a-priori beliefs about the number of…

We review theory and methodology of the class of simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models (SGDLMs) that provide flexibility, parsimony and scalability of multivariate time series analysis. Discussion includes core theoretical aspects…

Closed-form, interpretable mathematical models have been instrumental for advancing our understanding of the world; with the data revolution, we may now be in a position to uncover new such models for many systems from physics to the social…

This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

Methods for Bayesian simulation in the presence of computationally intractable likelihood functions are of growing interest. Termed likelihood-free samplers, standard simulation algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo have been adapted…

We consider the identification of large-scale linear and stable dynamic systems whose outputs may be the result of many correlated inputs. Hence, severe ill-conditioning may affect the estimation problem. This is a scenario often arising…

We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version…

Generative models for network time series (also known as dynamic graphs) have tremendous potential in fields such as epidemiology, biology and economics, where complex graph-based dynamics are core objects of study. Designing flexible and…

A Bayesian framework is attractive in the context of prediction, but a fast recursive update of the predictive distribution has apparently been out of reach, in part because Monte Carlo methods are generally used to compute the predictive.…

We consider online prediction of a latent dynamic spatiotemporal process and estimation of the associated model parameters based on noisy data. The problem is motivated by the analysis of spatial data arriving in real-time and the current…

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Given a multivariate function taking deterministic and uncertain inputs, we consider the problem of estimating a quantile set: a set of deterministic inputs for which the probability that the output belongs to a specific region remains…

This article presents a Bayesian inferential method where the likelihood for a model is unknown but where data can easily be simulated from the model. We discretize simulated (continuous) data to estimate the implicit likelihood in a…