相关论文: Dynamic quantile linear models: a Bayesian approac…

Bayesian regression remains a simple but effective tool based on Bayesian inference techniques. For large-scale applications, with complicated posterior distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are applied. To improve the well-known…

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

We discuss model and forecast combination in time series forecasting. A foundational Bayesian perspective based on agent opinion analysis theory defines a new framework for density forecast combination, and encompasses several existing…

Bayesian sociality models provide a scalable and flexible alternative for network analysis, capturing degree heterogeneity through actor-specific parameters while mitigating the identifiability challenges of latent space models. This paper…

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Quantile regression models provide a wide picture of the conditional distributions of the response variable by capturing the effect of the covariates at different quantile levels. In most applications, the parametric form of those…

Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a popular approach to capturing unobserved heterogeneity across individual units. However, standard estimation methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be impracticable for modeling outcomes from…

This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

This study presents a dynamic Bayesian network framework that facilitates intuitive gradual edge changes. We use two conditional dynamics to model the edge addition and deletion, and edge selection separately. Unlike previous research that…

In statistical practice, a realistic Bayesian model for a given data set can be defined by a likelihood function that is analytically or computationally intractable, due to large data sample size, high parameter dimensionality, or complex…

Quantile regression, a robust method for estimating conditional quantiles, has advanced significantly in fields such as econometrics, statistics, and machine learning. In high-dimensional settings, where the number of covariates exceeds…

Motivated by genome-wide association studies, we consider a standard linear model with one additional random effect in situations where many predictors have been collected on the same subjects and each predictor is analyzed separately.…

We consider the inverse reinforcement learning problem, that is, the problem of learning from, and then predicting or mimicking a controller based on state/action data. We propose a statistical model for such data, derived from the…

Bayesian Decision Trees (DTs) are generally considered a more advanced and accurate model than a regular Decision Tree (DT) because they can handle complex and uncertain data. Existing work on Bayesian DTs uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health…

We develop a new class of dynamic multivariate Poisson count models that allow for fast online updating and we refer to these models as multivariate Poisson-scaled beta (MPSB). The MPSB model allows for serial dependence in the counts as…

We develop a new method to sample from posterior distributions in hierarchical models without using Markov chain Monte Carlo. This method, which is a variant of importance sampling ideas, is generally applicable to high-dimensional models…

A system to update estimates from a sequence of probability distributions is presented. The aim of the system is to quickly produce estimates with a user-specified bound on the Monte Carlo error. The estimates are based upon weighted…

We present a new method of identifying a specific module in a dynamic network, possibly with feedback loops. Assuming known topology, we express the dynamics by an acyclic network composed of two blocks where the first block accounts for…