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Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-01-17 Yifei Xiong , Xiliang Yang , Sanguo Zhang , Zhijian He

Verifying the correctness of Bayesian computation is challenging. This is especially true for complex models that are common in practice, as these require sophisticated model implementations and algorithms. In this paper we introduce…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-22 Sean Talts , Michael Betancourt , Daniel Simpson , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Gaussian processes are probabilistic models that are commonly used as functional priors in machine learning. Due to their probabilistic nature, they can be used to capture the prior information on the statistics of noise, smoothness of the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-02-02 Ahmad Farooq , Cristian A. Galvis-Florez , Simo Särkkä

A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-11-21 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nadja Klein

Bayesian optimization has been successfully applied throughout Chemical Engineering for the optimization of functions that are expensive-to-evaluate, or where gradients are not easily obtainable. However, domain experts often possess…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2024-04-18 Tom Savage , Ehecatl Antonio del Rio Chanona

Although linear regression models are fundamental tools in statistical science, the estimation results can be sensitive to outliers. While several robust methods have been proposed in frequentist frameworks, statistical inference is not…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-15 Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-29 Yongsheng Mei , Mahdi Imani , Tian Lan

The success of deep learning requires large datasets and extensive training, which can create significant computational challenges. To address these challenges, pseudo-coresets, small learnable datasets that mimic the entire data, have been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-03 Hyungi Lee , Seungyoo Lee , Juho Lee

Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-04 Yuling Yao , Bruno Régaldo-Saint Blancard , Justin Domke

Bayesian inference is a widely used technique for real-time characterization of quantum systems. It excels in experimental characterization in the low data regime, and when the measurements have degrees of freedom. A decisive factor for its…

量子物理 · 物理学 2025-07-10 Alexandra Ramôa , Raffaele Santagati , Nathan Wiebe

Bayesian inference can often be sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters of the prior or likelihood, yet defining and quantifying this sensitivity in a principled and computationally feasible way remains challenging in practice.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-28 Arina Odnoblyudova , Charita Dellaporta , François-Xavier Briol

We consider the optimal approximate posterior over the top-layer weights in a Bayesian neural network for regression, and show that it exhibits strong dependencies on the lower-layer weights. We adapt this result to develop a correlated…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-23 Sebastian W. Ober , Laurence Aitchison

A growing number of generative statistical models do not permit the numerical evaluation of their likelihood functions. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular approach to overcome this issue, in which one simulates…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-10 Espen Bernton , Pierre E. Jacob , Mathieu Gerber , Christian P. Robert

In likelihood-free settings where likelihood evaluations are intractable, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) addresses the formidable inference task to discover plausible parameters of simulation programs that explain the observations.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-03-05 Kelvin Hsu , Fabio Ramos

Bayesian estimation is a powerful theoretical paradigm for the operation of quantum sensors. However, the Bayesian method for statistical inference generally suffers from demanding calibration requirements that have so far restricted its…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-09-22 Samuel P. Nolan , Augusto Smerzi , Luca Pezzè

Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complex stochastic models, where it is easy to simulate from the models, but impossible to calculate likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method of inference for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-14 Paul Fearnhead , Dennis Prangle

In recent years, Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems found in science, engineering and machine learning has gained significant attention. This paper examines the robustness of the Bayesian approach by analyzing the stability…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-03-06 Alfredo Garbuno-Inigo , Tapio Helin , Franca Hoffmann , Bamdad Hosseini

Solutions to inverse problems that are ill-conditioned or ill-posed may have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Unfortunately, analysing and quantifying this uncertainty is very challenging, particularly in high-dimensional problems. As a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-07-12 Marcelo Pereyra

Bayesian decision theory provides an elegant framework for acting optimally under uncertainty when tractable posterior distributions are available. Modern Bayesian models, however, typically involve intractable posteriors that are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-15 Meet P. Vadera , Soumya Ghosh , Kenney Ng , Benjamin M. Marlin

We consider the nonparametric multivariate isotonic regression problem, where the regression function is assumed to be nondecreasing with respect to each predictor. Our goal is to construct a Bayesian credible interval for the function…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-11-24 Kang Wang , Subhashis Ghosal