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In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2024-03-05 Narayan Tondapu

In this paper, we introduce the notion of Gaussian processes indexed by probability density functions for extending the Mat\'ern family of covariance functions. We use some tools from information geometry to improve the efficiency and the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-09 A. Fradi , Y. Feunteun , C. Samir , M. Baklouti , F. Bachoc , J-M. Loubes

Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a…

When constructing a Bayesian Machine Learning model, we might be faced with multiple different prior distributions and thus are required to properly consider them in a sensible manner in our model. While this situation is reasonably well…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-04-20 Sarem Seitz

Gaussian process regression is a powerful method for predicting states based on given data. It has been successfully applied for probabilistic predictions of structural systems to quantify, for example, the crack growth in mechanical…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-20 Simon Pfingstl , Markus Zimmermann

Gaussian processes allow for flexible specification of prior assumptions of unknown dynamics in state space models. We present a procedure for efficient Bayesian learning in Gaussian process state space models, where the representation is…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-04-18 Andreas Svensson , Arno Solin , Simo Särkkä , Thomas B. Schön

Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible, probabilistic, nonparametric models widely used in fields such as spatial statistics and machine learning. A drawback of Gaussian processes is their computational cost, with $O(N^3)$ time and $O(N^2)$…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-05-20 Filippo Rambelli , Fabio Sigrist

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

High dimensional time series are endemic in applications of machine learning such as robotics (sensor data), computational biology (gene expression data), vision (video sequences) and graphics (motion capture data). Practical nonlinear…

机器学习 · 统计学 2011-07-26 Andreas C. Damianou , Michalis K. Titsias , Neil D. Lawrence

Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-10-30 Jize Zhang , Lizhen Lin

Gaussian processes are used in machine learning to learn input-output mappings from observed data. Gaussian process regression is based on imposing a Gaussian process prior on the unknown regressor function and statistically conditioning it…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-07-16 Simo Särkkä

Non-stationary time series with non-linear trends are frequently encountered in applications. We consider here the feasibility of accurately forecasting the signals of multiple such time series considering jointly when the number of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-08-05 Kerry Fendick

Automating the customer analytics process is crucial for companies that manage distinct customer bases. In such data-rich and dynamic environments, visualization plays a key role in understanding events of interest. These ideas have led to…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-03-03 Ryan Dew , Asim Ansari

Multivariate categorical data occur in many applications of machine learning. One of the main difficulties with these vectors of categorical variables is sparsity. The number of possible observations grows exponentially with vector length,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-03-10 Yarin Gal , Yutian Chen , Zoubin Ghahramani

Gaussian Process state-space models capture complex temporal dependencies in a principled manner by placing a Gaussian Process prior on the transition function. These models have a natural interpretation as discretized stochastic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-24 Krista Longi , Jakob Lindinger , Olaf Duennbier , Melih Kandemir , Arto Klami , Barbara Rakitsch

Gaussian processes occupy one of the leading places in modern statistics and probability theory due to their importance and a wealth of strong results. The common use of Gaussian processes is in connection with problems related to…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-02-01 Zexun Chen , Jun Fan , Kuo Wang

Gaussian Processes face two primary challenges: constructing models for large datasets and selecting the optimal model. This master's thesis tackles these challenges in the low-dimensional case. We examine recent convergence results to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-13 Marcel Neugebauer

Gaussian processes models are widely adopted for nonparameteric/semi-parametric modeling. Identifiability issues occur when the mean model contains polynomials with unknown coefficients. Though resulting prediction is unaffected, this leads…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-11-02 Matthew Plumlee , V. Roshan Joseph

The ability to predict future states is crucial to informed decision-making while interacting with dynamic environments. With cameras providing a prevalent and information-rich sensing modality, the problem of predicting future states from…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-04-16 Nikhil U. Shinde , Xiao Liang , Florian Richter , Michael C. Yip

This work investigates application of different machine learning based prediction methodologies to estimate the performance of silicon based textured cells. Concept of confidence bound regions is introduced and advantages of this concept…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-16 Rahul Jaiswal , Manel Martínez-Ramón , Tito Busani