相关论文: Deep and Confident Prediction for Time Series at U…

In building intelligent transportation systems such as taxi or rideshare services, accurate prediction of travel time and distance is crucial for customer experience and resource management. Using the NYC taxi dataset, which contains taxi…

In urban settings, bus transit stands as a significant mode of public transportation, yet faces hurdles in delivering accurate and reliable arrival times. This discrepancy often culminates in delays and a decline in ridership, particularly…

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Deep learning-based support systems have demonstrated encouraging results in numerous clinical applications involving the processing of time series data. While such systems often are very accurate, they have no inherent mechanism for…

In the last years there has been a considerable increase in the availability of continuous sensor measurements in a wide range of application domains, such as Location-Based Services (LBS), medical monitoring systems, manufacturing plants…

Current research in time-series anomaly detection is using definitions that miss critical aspects of how anomaly detection is commonly used in practice. We list several areas that are of practical relevance and that we believe are either…

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

A regression-based BNN model is proposed to predict spatiotemporal quantities like hourly rider demand with calibrated uncertainties. The main contributions of this paper are (i) A feed-forward deterministic neural network (DetNN)…

Configurable software systems are employed in many important application domains. Understanding the performance of the systems under all configurations is critical to prevent potential performance issues caused by misconfiguration. However,…

Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some…

Recent studies have significantly improved the prediction accuracy of travel demand using graph neural networks. However, these studies largely ignored uncertainty that inevitably exists in travel demand prediction. To fill this gap, this…

To model time series accurately is important within a wide range of fields. As the world is generally too complex to be modelled exactly, it is often meaningful to assess the probability of a dynamical system to be in a specific state. This…

Predicting travel times of vehicles in urban settings is a useful and tangible quantity of interest in the context of intelligent transportation systems. We address the problem of travel time prediction in arterial roads using data sampled…

Regression models are used for inference and prediction in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers and analysts from different fields. In many research fields the amount of available data as well as…

An increasing body of research focuses on using neural networks to model time series. A common assumption in training neural networks via maximum likelihood estimation on time series is that the errors across time steps are uncorrelated.…

We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version…

Deciding the best future execution time is a critical task in many business activities while evolving time series forecasting, and optimal timing strategy provides such a solution, which is driven by observed data. This solution has plenty…

This paper gives an overview on how to develop a dense and deep neural network for making a time series prediction. First, the history and cornerstones in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning will be presented. After a short…

Probabilistic vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for robust safety of autonomous driving. Current methods for long-term trajectory prediction cannot guarantee the physical feasibility of predicted distribution. Moreover, their…

One of the fundamental challenges in the prediction of dynamic agents is robustness. Usually, most predictions are deterministic estimates of future states which are over-confident and prone to error. Recently, few works have addressed…