相关论文: Dynamic Variable Selection with Spike-and-Slab Pro…

We develop a dynamic factor stochastic volatility-in-mean (SVM) specification for vector autoregressions (VARs) that embeds an SVM component within a dynamic factor stochastic volatility structure. A small number of latent volatility…

In practical machine learning, the environments encountered during the model development and deployment phases often differ, especially when a model is used by many users in diverse settings. Learning models that maintain reliable…

Bayesian shrinkage methods have generated a lot of recent interest as tools for high-dimensional regression and model selection. These methods naturally facilitate tractable uncertainty quantification and incorporation of prior information.…

Multivariate time series forecasting is widely applied in fields such as transportation, energy, and finance. However, the data commonly suffers from issues of multi-scale characteristics, weak correlations, and noise interference, which…

Multimodal Large Models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in vision-language understanding and generation tasks. However, existing MLLMs typically rely on static modality fusion strategies, which treat all modalities equally…

This paper is concerned with the estimation of time-varying networks for high-dimensional nonstationary time series. Two types of dynamic behaviors are considered: structural breaks (i.e., abrupt change points) and smooth changes. To…

Deep learning models for Time Series Classification (TSC) have achieved strong predictive performance but their high computational and memory requirements often limit deployment on resource-constrained devices. While structured pruning can…

Characterizing the long term behavior of dynamical systems given limited measurements is a common challenge throughout the physical and biological sciences. This is a challenging task due to the sparsity and noise inherent to empirical…

We present an arbitrage free theoretical framework for modeling bid and ask prices of dividend paying securities in a discrete time setup using theory of dynamic acceptability indices. In the first part of the paper we develop the theory of…

We propose Stepwise cOnditional likelihood variable selection for Discriminant Analysis (SODA) to detect both main and quadratic interaction effects in logistic regression and quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) models. In the forward…

Accurate forecasting of industrial time series requires balancing predictive accuracy with physical plausibility under non-stationary operating conditions. Existing data-driven models often achieve strong statistical performance but…

Deep learning's success has been attributed to the training of large, overparameterized models on massive amounts of data. As this trend continues, model training has become prohibitively costly, requiring access to powerful computing…

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

Many econometric analyses involve spatio--temporal data. A considerable amount of literature has addressed spatio--temporal models, with Spatial Dynamic Panel Data (SDPD) being widely investigated and applied. In real data applications,…

In many practices, scientists are particularly interested in detecting which of the predictors are truly associated with a multivariate response. It is more accurate to model multiple responses as one vector rather than separating each…

Performative prediction (PP) is an algorithmic framework for optimizing machine learning (ML) models where the model's deployment affects the distribution of the data it is trained on. Compared to traditional ML with fixed data, designing…

Rescaled spike and slab models are a new Bayesian variable selection method for linear regression models. In high dimensional orthogonal settings such models have been shown to possess optimal model selection properties. We review…

Uncertainty estimation for unlabeled data is crucial to active learning. With a deep neural network employed as the backbone model, the data selection process is highly challenging due to the potential over-confidence of the model…

We present a static analysis for discovering differentiable or more generally smooth parts of a given probabilistic program, and show how the analysis can be used to improve the pathwise gradient estimator, one of the most popular methods…

We consider the problem of simultaneous variable selection and constant coefficient identification in high-dimensional varying coefficient models based on B-spline basis expansion. Both objectives can be considered as some type of model…