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Uncertainty estimation in deep models is essential in many real-world applications and has benefited from developments over the last several years. Recent evidence suggests that existing solutions dependent on simple Gaussian formulations…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-11 Jurijs Nazarovs , Ronak R. Mehta , Vishnu Suresh Lokhande , Vikas Singh

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) extend traditional neural networks to provide uncertainties associated with their outputs. On the forward pass through a BNN, predictions (and their uncertainties) are made either by Monte Carlo sampling…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-22 David J. Schodt

In Bayesian inverse problems, the posterior distribution is used to quantify uncertainty about the reconstructed solution. In practice, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms often are used to draw samples from the posterior distribution.…

数值分析 · 数学 2018-03-13 D. Andrew Brown , Arvind Saibaba , Sarah Vallélian

Bayesian Decision Trees (DTs) are generally considered a more advanced and accurate model than a regular Decision Tree (DT) because they can handle complex and uncertain data. Existing work on Bayesian DTs uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-31 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Alexander M. Phillips , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

This work is motivated by the analysis of ecological interaction networks. Poisson stochastic blockmodels are widely used in this field to decipher the structure that underlies a weighted network, while accounting for covariate effects.…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-07-24 Sophie Donnet , Stéphane Robin

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-19 George Whittle , Juliusz Ziomek , Jacob Rawling , Maike A. Osborne

This paper explores Bayesian inference for a biased sampling model in situations where the population of interest cannot be sampled directly, but rather through an indirect and inherently biased method. Observations are viewed as being the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2007-11-26 Russell Zaretzki , Michael A. Gilchrist , William M. Briggs , Artin Armagan

Monte Carlo algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), are routinely used for Bayesian inference in generalized linear models; however, these algorithms are prohibitively slow in massive data…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-08-31 Nariankadu D. Shyamalkumar , Sanvesh Srivastava

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-02-04 Willem van den Boom , Andrea Cremaschi , Alexandre H. Thiery

Annealed Sequential Monte Carlo (ASMC) samplers are special cases of SMC samplers where the sequence of distributions can be embedded in a smooth path of distributions. Using this underlying path and a performance model based on the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-12-03 Saifuddin Syed , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Kevin Chern , Arnaud Doucet

Resampling from a target measure whose density is unknown is a fundamental problem in mathematical statistics and machine learning. A setting that dominates the machine learning literature consists of learning a map from an easy-to-sample…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Leticia Mattos Da Silva , Silvia Sellán , Francisco Vargas , Justin Solomon

The problem of sampling constrained continuous distributions has frequently appeared in many machine/statistical learning models. Many Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling methods have been adapted to handle different types of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-02-21 Shiwei Lan , Lulu Kang

Many real-world problems require one to estimate parameters of interest, in a Bayesian framework, from data that are collected sequentially in time. Conventional methods for sampling from posterior distributions, such as {Markov Chain Monte…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-25 Jiangqi Wu , Linjie Wen , Peter L Green , Jinglai Li , Simon Maskell

Diffusion models (DMs) have proven to be effective in modeling high-dimensional distributions, leading to their widespread adoption for representing complex priors in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs). However, current DM-based posterior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-06 Haoxuan Chen , Yinuo Ren , Martin Renqiang Min , Lexing Ying , Zachary Izzo

An effective approach for sampling from unnormalized densities is based on the idea of gradually transporting samples from an easy prior to the complicated target distribution. Two popular methods are (1) Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), where…

Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-10-19 Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

Bayesian models have become very popular over the last years in several fields such as signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Bayesian inference requires the approximation of complicated integrals involving posterior…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-07-20 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira

Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods often suffer from long correlation times. Consequently, these methods must be run for many steps to generate an independent sample. In this paper a method is proposed to overcome this difficulty.…

数值分析 · 数学 2009-11-13 Jonathan Weare

Bayesian computation crucially relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In the case of massive data sets, running the Metropolis-Hastings sampler to draw from the posterior distribution becomes prohibitive due to the large…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-12-07 Roberto Casarin , Radu V. Craiu , Fabrizio Leisen

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is often conducted via local or sequential search over topologies and branch lengths using algorithms such as random-walk Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC).…

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