相关论文: On the Quantitatively Characterization of Intermit…

This paper introduces a new approach to quantify the impact of forward propagated demand and weather uncertainty on power system planning and operation models. Recent studies indicate that such sampling uncertainty, originating from demand…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

The future energy system will largely depend on volatile renewable energy sources and temperature-dependent loads, which makes the weather a central influencing factor. This article presents a novel approach for simulating weather scenarios…

This paper proposes a new uncertainty measure, appropriate for quantifying the performance of transport models in assessing the origin or source of a given observation. It is found that in a neighbourhood of the observation the proposed…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a…

This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addressing both uncertainty sources, the method achieves…

Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

Functional data analysis is proved to be useful in many scientific applications. The physical process is observed as curves and often there are several curves observed due to multiple subjects, providing the replicates in statistical sense.…

We develop a novel continuous-time asymptotic framework for inference on whether the predictive ability of a given forecast model remains stable over time. We formally define forecast instability from the economic forecaster's perspective…

As penetration of wind power generation increases, system operators must account for its stochastic nature in a reliable and cost-efficient manner. These conflicting objectives can be traded-off by accounting for the variability and…

Due to the penetration of renewable energy resources and load deviation, uncertainty handling is one of the main challenges for power system; therefore the need for accurate decision-making in a power system under the penetration of…

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to an ad-hoc operating point,…

Each year a growing number of wind farms are being added to power grids to generate electricity. The power curve of a wind turbine, which exhibits the relationship between generated power and wind speed, plays a major role in assessing the…

The volatile nature of wind power generation creates challenges in achieving secure power grid operations. It is, therefore, necessary to make accurate wind power prediction and its uncertainty quantification. Wind power forecasting usually…

Load forecasting has long been recognized as an important building block for all utility operational planning efforts. Over the recent years, it has become ever more challenging to make accurate forecasts due to the proliferation of…

Wind power forecasting is essential to power system operation and electricity markets. As abundant data became available thanks to the deployment of measurement infrastructures and the democratization of meteorological modelling, extensive…

Wind and solar power are known to be highly influenced by weather events and may ramp up or down abruptly. Such events in the power production influence not only the availability of energy, but also the stability of the entire power grid.…

Electricity networks are vulnerable to weather damage, with severe events often leading to faults and power outages. Timely forecasts of fault occurrences, ranging from nowcasts to several days ahead, can enhance preparedness, support…