相关论文: Limits of Risk Predictability in a Cascading Alter…

Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents in the real world must satisfy safety constraints in addition to maximizing a reward objective. Model-based RL algorithms hold promise for reducing unsafe real-world actions: they may synthesize policies…

Forecasting armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictions, they often lack individual-level uncertainty estimates,…

Solving chance-constrained optimal control problems for systems subject to non-stationary uncertainties is a significant challenge.Conventional robust model predictive control (MPC) often yields excessive conservatism by relying on static…

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

The escalating frequency and severity of natural disasters, exacerbated by climate change, underscore the critical role of insurance in facilitating recovery and promoting investments in risk reduction. This work introduces a novel Adaptive…

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

Wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent and devastating, and therefore the technology to combat them must adapt accordingly. Modern predictive models have failed to balance predictive accuracy and operational viability, resulting in…

In many real-world problems, predictions are leveraged to monitor and control cyber-physical systems, demanding guarantees on the satisfaction of reliability and safety requirements. However, predictions are inherently uncertain, and…

Rare-event prediction is critical in domains such as healthcare, finance, reliability engineering, customer support, aviation safety, where positive outcomes are infrequent yet potentially catastrophic. Extreme class imbalance biases…

Accurate computation of robust estimates for extremal quantiles of empirical distributions is an essential task for a wide range of applicative fields, including economic policymaking and the financial industry. Such estimates are…

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

We develop a method for hybrid analyses that uses external controls to augment internal control arms in randomized controlled trials (RCT) where the degree of borrowing is determined based on similarity between RCT and external control…

Reliability prediction is an important task in software reliability engineering, which has been widely studied in the last decades. However, modelling and predicting user-perceived reliability of black-box services remain an open research…

Every wildfire prediction model deployed today shares a dangerous property: none of these methods provides formal guarantees on how much fire spread is missed. Despite extensive work on wildfire spread prediction using deep learning, no…

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

While modern multivariate forecasters such as Transformers and GNNs achieve strong benchmark performance, they often suffer from systematic errors at specific variables or horizons and, critically, lack guarantees against performance…

Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the…

Given a large number of low-level heterogeneous categorical alerts from an anomaly detection system, how to characterize complex relationships between different alerts, filter out false positives, and deliver trustworthy rankings and…

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a comprehensive framework to produce statistically rigorous uncertainty sets for black-box machine learning models. To further improve the efficiency of CP, conformal correction is proposed to fine-tune or…

From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic…