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This paper addresses the problem of inferring sparse causal networks modeled by multivariate auto-regressive (MAR) processes. Conditions are derived under which the Group Lasso (gLasso) procedure consistently estimates sparse network…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-05-28 Andrew Bolstad , Barry Van Veen , Robert Nowak

Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2010-08-13 Stefan Haufe , Guido Nolte , Klaus-Robert Mueller , Nicole Kraemer

Causal discovery between collections of time-series data can help diagnose causes of symptoms and hopefully prevent faults before they occur. However, reliable causal discovery can be very challenging, especially when the data acquisition…

This paper focuses on causal structure estimation from time series data in which measurements are obtained at a coarser timescale than the causal timescale of the underlying system. Previous work has shown that such subsampling can lead to…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2016-07-14 Antti Hyttinen , Sergey Plis , Matti Järvisalo , Frederick Eberhardt , David Danks

Causal models seek to unravel the cause-effect relationships among variables from observed data, as opposed to mere mappings among them, as traditional regression models do. This paper introduces a novel causal discovery algorithm designed…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-03 Saeed Mohseni-Sehdeh , Walid Saad

While most classical approaches to Granger causality detection repose upon linear time series assumptions, many interactions in neuroscience and economics applications are nonlinear. We develop an approach to nonlinear Granger causality…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-06-26 Alex Tank , Ian Cover , Nicholas J. Foti , Ali Shojaie , Emily B. Fox

Causality defines the relationship between cause and effect. In multivariate time series field, this notion allows to characterize the links between several time series considering temporal lags. These phenomena are particularly important…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-01 Antonin Arsac , Aurore Lomet , Jean-Philippe Poli

Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-08-18 Jonas Peters , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

The broad abundance of time series data, which is in sharp contrast to limited knowledge of the underlying network dynamic processes that produce such observations, calls for a rigorous and efficient method of causal network inference. Here…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2015-05-19 Jie Sun , Dane Taylor , Erik M. Bollt

A major challenge for causal inference from time-series data is the trade-off between computational feasibility and accuracy. Motivated by process motifs for lagged covariance in an autoregressive model with slow mean-reversion, we propose…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-30 Alice C. Schwarze , Sara M. Ichinaga , Bingni W. Brunton

We propose a novel algorithm for efficiently computing a sparse directed adjacency matrix from a group of time series following a causal graph process. Our solution is scalable for both dense and sparse graphs and automatically selects the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-11-19 Théophile Griveau-Billion , Ben Calderhead

Granger causality is among the widely used data-driven approaches for causal analysis of time series data with applications in various areas including economics, molecular biology, and neuroscience. Two of the main challenges of this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-19 Proloy Das , Behtash Babadi

Identifying the causal structure of systems with multiple dynamic elements is critical to several scientific disciplines. The conventional approach is to conduct statistical tests of causality, for example with Granger Causality, between…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-03-22 Jacek P. Dmochowski

We propose a nonparametric method for detecting nonlinear causal relationship within a set of multidimensional discrete time series, by using sparse additive models (SpAMs). We show that, when the input to the SpAM is a $\beta$-mixing time…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-04-27 Yingxiang Yang , Adams Wei Yu , Zhaoran Wang , Tuo Zhao

To gain insight into complex systems it is a key challenge to infer nonlinear causal directional relations from observational time-series data. Specifically, estimating causal relationships between interacting components in large systems…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-04 Axel Wismüller , Adora M. DSouza , Anas Z. Abidin

Identifying causal relations among simultaneously acquired signals is an important problem in multivariate time series analysis. For linear stochastic systems Granger proposed a simple procedure called the Granger causality to detect such…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Yonghong Chen , Govindan Rangarajan , Jianfeng Feng , Mingzhou Ding

A typical problem in causal modeling is the instability of model structure learning, i.e., small changes in finite data can result in completely different optimal models. The present work introduces a novel causal modeling algorithm for…

Accurate gene regulatory networks can be used to explain the emergence of different phenotypes, disease mechanisms, and other biological functions. Many methods have been proposed to infer networks from gene expression data but have been…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2018-12-11 Phan Nguyen , Rosemary Braun

A fundamental challenge in estimations of daily streamflow time series at sites with incomplete records is how to effectively and efficiently select reference or donor gauges from an existing gauge network to infer the missing data. While…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-06-09 German A. Villalba , Xu Liang , Yao Liang

Causal discovery aims to recover information about an unobserved causal graph from the observable data it generates. Layerings are orderings of the variables which place causes before effects. In this paper, we provide ways to recover…

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