相关论文: Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When…

Underlying the use of statistical approaches for a wide range of applications is the assumption that the probabilities obtained from a statistical model are representative of the "true" probability that event, or outcome, will occur.…

Composite likelihood provides approximate inference when the full likelihood is intractable and sub-likelihood functions of marginal events can be evaluated relatively easily. It has been successfully applied for many complex models.…

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Accurate time series forecasting is critical for a wide range of problems with temporal data. Ensemble modeling is a well-established technique for leveraging multiple predictive models to increase accuracy and robustness, as the…

An ensemble post-processing method is developed to improve the probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation events across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines a 3-D Vision Transformer (ViT) for bias correction…

A new index for high-impact weather forecasting is introduced and assessed in comparison with the well-established extreme forecast index (EFI). Two other ensemble summary statistics are also included in this comparison study: the…

Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

Extreme events frequently occur in real-world time series and often carry significant practical implications. In domains such as climate and healthcare, these events, such as floods, heatwaves, or acute medical episodes, can lead to serious…

Probability estimates generated by boosting ensembles are poorly calibrated because of the margin maximization nature of the algorithm. The outputs of the ensemble need to be properly calibrated before they can be used as probability…

In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for…

We explore the notion of uncertainty in the context of modern abstractive summarization models, using the tools of Bayesian Deep Learning. Our approach approximates Bayesian inference by first extending state-of-the-art summarization models…

Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…

This study explores how Bayesian networks (BNs) can improve forecast accuracy compared to logistic regression and recalibration and aggregation methods, using data from the Good Judgment Project. Regularized logistic regression models and a…

Generating accurate extremes from an observational data set is crucial when seeking to estimate risks associated with the occurrence of future extremes which could be larger than those already observed. Applications range from the…

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

Both the median-based classifier and the quantile-based classifier are useful for discriminating high-dimensional data with heavy-tailed or skewed inputs. But these methods are restricted as they assign equal weight to each variable in an…

Meteorological ensembles are a collection of scenarios for future weather delivered by a meteorological center. Such ensembles form the main source of valuable information for probabilistic forecasting which aims at producing a predictive…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular technique for facilitating valid predictive inference across a spectrum of machine learning models, under minimal assumption of exchangeability. Recently, Hoff (2023) showed that full conformal…