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Causal discovery, the problem of inferring the direction of causality, is generally ill-posed. We use the language of structural causal models (SCM) to show that assuming that the causal relations are acyclic and invariant across multiple…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-14 Francesco Montagna , Francesco Locatello

When estimating causal effects using observational data, it is desirable to replicate a randomized experiment as closely as possible by obtaining treated and control groups with similar covariate distributions. This goal can often be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2010-10-28 Elizabeth A. Stuart

For the purpose of causal inference we employ a stochastic model of the data generating process, utilizing individual propensity probabilities for the treatment, and also individual and counterfactual prognosis probabilities for the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-15 Brian Knaeble , Mehdi Hakim-Hashemi , Mark A. Abramson

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

In many scenarios, the observational data needed for causal inferences are spread over two data files. In particular, we consider scenarios where one file includes covariates and the treatment measured on one set of individuals, and a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-09-22 Sharmistha Guha , Jerome P. Reiter , Andrea Mercatanti

Inferring causal effects of treatments is a central goal in many disciplines. The potential outcomes framework is a main statistical approach to causal inference, in which a causal effect is defined as a comparison of the potential outcomes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-01-04 Peng Ding , Fan Li

Scientific discovery catalyzes human intellectual advances, driven by the cycle of hypothesis generation, experimental design, evaluation, and assumption refinement. Central to this process is causal inference, uncovering the mechanisms…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-26 Ivaxi Sheth , Sahar Abdelnabi , Mario Fritz

Nonlinear causal discovery from observational data imposes strict identifiability assumptions on the formulation of structural equations utilized in the data generating process. The evaluation of structure learning methods under assumption…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Georg Velev , Stefan Lessmann

Inferring nonlinear and asymmetric causal relationships between multivariate longitudinal data is a challenging task with wide-ranging application areas including clinical medicine, mathematical biology, economics and environmental…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-25 Tom Edinburgh , Stephen J. Eglen , Ari Ercole

This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-05-23 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Giorgio Gnecco

In the absence of randomized controlled and natural experiments, it is necessary to balance the distributions of (observable) covariates of the treated and control groups in order to obtain an unbiased estimate of a causal effect of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-02 Martin Cousineau , Vedat Verter , Susan A. Murphy , Joelle Pineau

Identifying and controlling bias is a key problem in empirical sciences. Causal diagram theory provides graphical criteria for deciding whether and how causal effects can be identified from observed (nonexperimental) data by covariate…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-02-20 Johannes Textor , Maciej Liskiewicz

Causal processes in biomedicine may contain cycles, evolve over time or differ between populations. However, many graphical models cannot accommodate these conditions. We propose to model causation using a mixture of directed cyclic graphs…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-09-08 Eric V. Strobl

To draw scientifically meaningful conclusions and build reliable models of quantitative phenomena, cause and effect must be taken into consideration (either implicitly or explicitly). This is particularly challenging when the measurements…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-12-11 Max A. Little , Reham Badawy

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-01-27 Sara Magliacane , Tom Claassen , Joris M. Mooij

The widespread applicability of analytics in cyber-physical systems has motivated research into causal inference methods. Predictive estimators are not sufficient when analytics are used for decision making; rather, the flow of causal…

系统与控制 · 计算机科学 2017-03-22 Roy Dong , Eric Mazumdar , S. Shankar Sastry

We propose a constraint-based algorithm, which automatically determines causal relevance thresholds, to infer causal networks from data. We call these topological thresholds. We present two methods for determining the threshold: the first…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-04-24 Filipe Barroso , Diogo Gomes , Gareth J. Baxter

We describe a method for inferring linear causal relations among multi-dimensional variables. The idea is to use an asymmetry between the distributions of cause and effect that occurs if both the covariance matrix of the cause and the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2009-09-25 Dominik Janzing , Patrik O. Hoyer , Bernhard Schoelkopf

Inferring causal relationships between variable pairs is crucial for understanding multivariate interactions in complex systems. Knowledge-based causal discovery -- which involves inferring causal relationships by reasoning over the…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-06-11 Yuni Susanti , Michael Färber

Several methods exist to infer causal networks from massive volumes of observational data. However, almost all existing methods require a considerable length of time series data to capture cause and effect relationships. In contrast,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-12-22 Abbas Shojaee , Isuru Ranasinghe , Alireza Ani