相关论文: Bayesian Non-Homogeneous Markov Models via Polya-G…
Data collected from wearable devices and smartphones can shed light on an individual's pattern of behavioral and circadian routine. Phone use can be modeled as alternating event process, between the state of active use and the state of…
Obtaining accurate water level predictions are essential for water resource management and implementing flood mitigation strategies. Several data-driven models can be found in the literature. However, there has been limited research with…
The FBMS R package facilitates Bayesian model selection and model averaging in complex regression settings by employing a variety of Monte Carlo model exploration methods. At its core, the package implements an efficient Mode Jumping Markov…
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distribution belongs to the Beta family. In each latent state, the…
Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…
Nature, as far as we know, evolves continuously through space and time. Yet the ubiquitous hidden Markov model (HMM)--originally developed for discrete time and space analysis in natural language processing--remains a central tool in…
Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…
Growth mixture models (GMMs) incorporate both conventional random effects growth modeling and latent trajectory classes as in finite mixture modeling; therefore, they offer a way to handle the unobserved heterogeneity between subjects in…
Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models…
We develop a Bayesian graphical modeling framework for functional data for correlated multivariate random variables observed over a continuous domain. Our method leads to graphical Markov models for functional data which allows the graphs…
The evolution of communities in dynamic (time-varying) network data is a prominent topic of interest. A popular approach to understanding these dynamic networks is to embed the dyadic relations into a latent metric space. While methods for…
We introduce a hierarchical nonparametric model for probability measures based on a multi-resolution transformation of probability distributions. The model allows a varying amount of shrinkage to be applied to data features of different…
Bayesian Cox semiparametric regression is an important problem in many clinical settings. Bayesian procedures provide finite-sample inference and naturally incorporate prior information if MCMC algorithms and posteriors are well behaved.…
We propose a framework for fitting fractional polynomials models as special cases of Bayesian Generalized Nonlinear Models, applying an adapted version of the Genetically Modified Mode Jumping Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The…
In this work we propose a Bayesian framework for data fusion of multivariate signals which arises in imaging systems. More specifically, we consider the case where we have observed two images of the same object through two different imaging…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) can predict the future value of a time series based on its current and previous values, making it a powerful algorithm for handling various types of time series. Numerous studies have explored the improvement…
Assessing the availability of rainfall water plays a crucial role in rainfed agriculture. Given the substantial proportion of agricultural practices in India being rainfed and considering the potential trends in rainfall amounts across…
Modeling count-valued time series has been receiving increasing attention since count time series naturally arise in physical and social domains. Poisson gamma dynamical systems (PGDSs) are newly-developed methods, which can well capture…
Hidden Markov Models (HMM) have been used for several years in many time series analysis or pattern recognitions tasks. HMM are often trained by means of the Baum-Welch algorithm which can be seen as a special variant of an expectation…
Accurate, localised rainfall information is essential for applications such as agricultural planning, climate risk assessment, and water resources management. Gridded climate products provide rainfall information over large areas but can…