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Modeling inter-dependencies between time-series is the key to achieve high performance in anomaly detection for multivariate time-series data. The de-facto solution to model the dependencies is to feed the data into a recurrent neural…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-17 Yuhang Wu , Mengting Gu , Lan Wang , Yusan Lin , Fei Wang , Hao Yang

Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2019-02-12 Nick James , Roman Marchant , Richard Gerlach , Sally Cripps

Multivariate time series data that capture the temporal evolution of interconnected systems are ubiquitous in diverse areas. Understanding the complex relationships and potential dependencies among co-observed variables is crucial for the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-03 Zhaolu Liu , Robert L. Peach , Felix Laumann , Sara Vallejo Mengod , Mauricio Barahona

This work introduces a novel, simple, and flexible method to quantify irreversibility in generic high-dimensional time series based on the well-known mapping to a binary classification problem. Our approach utilizes gradient boosting for…

统计力学 · 物理学 2025-01-09 Michele Vodret , Cristiano Pacini , Christian Bongiorno

Learning the dynamics of complex systems features a large number of applications in data science. Graph-based modeling and inference underpins the most prominent family of approaches to learn complex dynamics due to their ability to capture…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2018-07-06 Luis M. Lopez-Ramos , Daniel Romero , Bakht Zaman , Baltasar Beferull-Lozano

Time-dependent data often exhibit characteristics, such as non-stationarity and heavy-tailed errors, that would be inappropriate to model with the typical assumptions used in popular models. Thus, more flexible approaches are required to be…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-11-02 Taole Sha , Michael Minyi Zhang

High dimensional piecewise stationary graphical models represent a versatile class for modelling time varying networks arising in diverse application areas, including biology, economics, and social sciences. There has been recent work in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-06-21 Hossein Keshavarz , George Michailidis , Yves Atchade

High-dimensional multivariate time series are challenging due to the dependent and high-dimensional nature of the data, but in many applications there is additional structure that can be exploited to reduce computing time along with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-13 Michael Schweinberger , Sergii Babkin , Katherine Ensor

Our understanding of a variety of phenomena in physics, biology and economics crucially depends on the analysis of multivariate time series. While a wide range of tools and techniques for time series analysis already exist, the increasing…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2015-10-27 Lucas Lacasa , Vincenzo Nicosia , Vito Latora

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-11-01 Luca Ambrogioni , Eric Maris

State-space models effectively model multivariate time series by updating over time a representation of the system state from which predictions are made. The state representation is usually a vector without any explicit structure.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-07 Daniele Zambon , Andrea Cini , Cesare Alippi

Graph representations offer powerful and intuitive ways to describe data in a multitude of application domains. Here, we consider stochastic processes generating graphs and propose a methodology for detecting changes in stationarity of such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-11 Daniele Zambon , Cesare Alippi , Lorenzo Livi

Time series analysis has gained significant attention due to its critical applications in diverse fields such as healthcare, finance, and sensor networks. The complexity and non-stationarity of time series make it challenging to capture the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-31 Guancen Lin , Cong Shen , Aijing Lin

We study the problem of graph structure identification, i.e., of recovering the graph of dependencies among time series. We model these time series data as components of the state of linear stochastic networked dynamical systems. We assume…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-29 Sérgio Machado , Anirudh Sridhar , Paulo Gil , Jorge Henriques , José M. F. Moura , Augusto Santos

We obtain a sharp convergence rate for banded covariance matrix estimates of stationary processes. A precise order of magnitude is derived for spectral radius of sample covariance matrices. We also consider a thresholded covariance matrix…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-03-19 Han Xiao , Wei Biao Wu

We develop a timescale synthesis-based probabilistic approach for the modeling of locally stationary signals. Inspired by our previous work, the model involves zero-mean, complex Gaussian wavelet coefficients, whose distribution varies as a…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-02-10 Adrien Meynard , Bruno Torrésani

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-02-19 Michael Vogt

Graphical interaction models have become an important tool for analysing multivariate time series. In these models, the interrelationships among the components of a time series are described by undirected graphs in which the vertices depict…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-07-02 Michael Eichler

During the last two decades, locally stationary processes have been widely studied in the time series literature. In this paper we consider the locally-stationary vector-auto-regression model of order one, or LS-VAR(1), and estimate its…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-04-26 Giovanni Motta

Recent studies have shown great promise in applying graph neural networks for multivariate time series forecasting, where the interactions of time series are described as a graph structure and the variables are represented as the graph…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-29 Junchen Ye , Zihan Liu , Bowen Du , Leilei Sun , Weimiao Li , Yanjie Fu , Hui Xiong