相关论文: What did the 2016 Brexit referendum data really sa…

The notion of the voting power is illustrated by examples of the systems of voting in the European Council according to the Treaty of Nice and the more recent proposition of the European Convent. We show that both systems are not…

Brexit, a global pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and record inflation - few legislative bodies have faced such a cascade of shocks as the European Parliament did during its 9th term (2019-2024). Using the Bipartite Configuration…

Food insecurity is associated with increased risk for several health conditions and with increased national burden of chronic disease. Key determinants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Forecasts show household…

Multiple countries have recently experienced extreme political polarization, which in some cases led to escalation of hate crime, violence and political instability. Beside the much discussed presidential elections in the United States and…

We examine the relationship between social structure and sentiment through the analysis of a large collection of tweets about the Irish Marriage Referendum of 2015. We obtain the sentiment of every tweet with the hashtags #marref and…

Emotional volatility is a human universal. Yet there has been no large-scale scientific study of predictors of that phenomenon. Building from previous works, which had been ad hoc and based on tiny samples, this paper reports the first…

The voting rules of the European Council (EU) under the Treaty of Lisbon became effective on 1 November 2014. Kurz \& Napel (2015) showed that the dimension of this voting system is between $7$ and $13,368$. The lower bound $7$ actually…

Population dynamic of getting divorced depends on many global factors, including social norms, economy, law or demographics as well as individual factors like the level of interpersonal or problem-solving skills of the spouses. We sought to…

The following paper is part of the authors' response to an invitation from the Constitutional Affairs Committee (AFCO) of the European Parliament to advise on mathematical methods for the allocation of Parliamentary seats between the 27…

Measuring public opinion is a key focus during democratic elections, enabling candidates to gauge their popularity and alter their campaign strategies accordingly. Traditional survey polling remains the most popular estimation technique,…

We present a simulation-based study in which the results of two major exit polls conducted during the recall referendum that took place in Venezuela on August 15, 2004, are compared to the official results of the Venezuelan National…

The recent past has highlighted the influential role of social networks and online media in shaping public debate on current affairs and political issues. This paper is focused on studying the role of politically-motivated actors and their…

Within this paper we develop and apply new methodology adequately including undecided voters for the 2021 German federal election. Due to a cooperation with the polling institute Civey, we are in the fortunate position to obtain data in…

Elections, the cornerstone of democratic societies, are usually regarded as unpredictable due to the complex interactions that shape them at different levels. In this work, we show that voter turnouts contain crucial information that can be…

In certain bodies, like the Council of the EU, the member states have a voting weight which depends on the population of the re- spective state. In this article we ask the question which voting weight guarantees a `fair' representation of…

Twelve turnout rates of French national elections by municipality have shown statistical regularities, neither depend on the nature of the election, nor on the national turnout level. Three quantitative predictions about voter turnout at…

This paper studies the dynamics of opinion formation and polarization in social media. We investigate whether users' stance concerning contentious subjects is influenced by the online discussions they are exposed to and interactions with…

The aim of the present article is to offer a strictly mathematical, statistical treatment of the current account balances in EU and in the Eurozone. Based on Eurostat data, an overview of the total and annual balances is first made for…

Seven mathematicians and one political scientist met at the Cambridge Apportionment Meeting in January 2011. They agreed a unanimous recommendation to the European Parliament for its future apportionments between the EU Member States. This…

Interest has grown around the classification of stance that users assume within online debates in recent years. Stance has been usually addressed by considering users posts in isolation, while social studies highlight that social…