相关论文: Bayesian aggregation of two forecasts in the parti…

The outcome statistics of an informationally complete quantum measurement for a system in a given state can be used to evaluate the ensemble expectation of any linear operator in the same state, by averaging a function of the outcomes that…

We consider chance constrained optimization where it is sought to optimize a function while complying with constraints, both of which are affected by uncertainties. The high computational cost of realistic simulations strongly limits the…

Spatial regression of random fields based on potentially biased sensing information is proposed in this paper. One major concern in such applications is that since it is not known a-priori what the accuracy of the collected data from each…

We compare the accuracy, precision and reliability of different methods for estimating key system parameters for two-level systems subject to Hamiltonian evolution and decoherence. It is demonstrated that the use of Bayesian modelling and…

Finite mixture models have become a popular tool for clustering. Amongst other uses, they have been applied for clustering longitudinal data and clustering high-dimensional data. In the latter case, a latent Gaussian mixture model is…

Bayesian and frequentist methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimality properties. In practice, there are situations in which one of the methods is more preferred by some criteria. We consider the case of inference about a…

Census data provide detailed information about population characteristics at a coarse resolution. Nevertheless, fine-grained, high-resolution mappings of population counts are increasingly needed to characterize population dynamics and to…

This paper demonstrates that aggregating crowdsourced forecasts benefits from modeling the written justifications provided by forecasters. Our experiments show that the majority and weighted vote baselines are competitive, and that the…

We present a new nonparametric mixture-of-experts model for multivariate regression problems, inspired by the probabilistic k-nearest neighbors algorithm. Using a conditionally specified model, predictions for out-of-sample inputs are based…

Forecasting revenues by aggregating analyst forecasts is a fundamental problem in financial research and practice. A key objective in this context is to improve the accuracy of the forecast by optimizing two performance metrics: the hit…

Inferring a decision maker's utility function typically involves an elicitation phase where the decision maker responds to a series of elicitation queries, followed by an estimation phase where the state-of-the-art is to either fit the…

We introduce a method for aggregating many least squares estimator so that the resulting estimate has two properties: sparsity and structure. That is, only a few candidate covariates are used in the resulting model, and the selected…

Following the idea of Bayesian learning via Gaussian mixture model, we organically combine the backward-looking information contained in the historical data and the forward-looking information implied by the market portfolio, which is…

We introduce a data assimilation strategy aimed at accurately capturing key non-Gaussian structures in probability distributions using a small ensemble size. A major challenge in statistical forecasting of nonlinearly coupled multiscale…

We propose a finite sample based predictor for estimated linear one dimensional time series models and compute the associated total forecasting error. The expression for the error that we present takes into account the estimation error.…

We address the estimation problem of the separation of two arbitrarily close incoherent point sources from the quantum Bayesian point of view, i.e., when a prior probability distribution function (PDF) on the separation is available. For…

When averages of different experimental determinations of the same quantity are computed, each with statistical and systematic error components, then frequently the statistical and systematic components of the combined error are quoted…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients…

Statistical estimates from survey samples have traditionally been obtained via design-based estimators. In many cases, these estimators tend to work well for quantities such as population totals or means, but can fall short as sample sizes…

In this paper we consider a network of spatially distributed sensors which collect measurement samples of a spatial field, and aim at estimating in a distributed way (without any central coordinator) the entire field by suitably fusing all…