相关论文: To replace or not to replace in finite population …

Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…

While the traditional viewpoint in machine learning and statistics assumes training and testing samples come from the same population, practice belies this fiction. One strategy -- coming from robust statistics and optimization -- is thus…

Ensemble methods combine the predictions of several base models. We study whether or not including more models always improves their average performance. This question depends on the kind of ensemble considered, as well as the predictive…

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to reduce the estimation variance for one or more population variables of interest that are estimated using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective…

This paper studies how insurers can chose which claims to investigate for fraud. Given a prediction model, typically only claims with the highest predicted propability of being fraudulent are investigated. We argue that this can lead to…

Hypothesis testing in high dimensional data is a notoriously difficult problem without direct access to competing models' likelihood functions. This paper argues that statistical divergences can be used to quantify the difference between…

A specific family of point processes are introduced that allow to select samples for the purpose of estimating the mean or the integral of a function of a real variable. These processes, called quasi-systematic processes, depend on a tuning…

The wrapped normal distribution arises when a the density of a one-dimensional normal distribution is wrapped around the circle infinitely many times. At first look, evaluation of its probability density function appears tedious as an…

This paper examines the foundational concept of random variables in probability theory and statistical inference, demonstrating that their mathematical definition requires no reference to randomization or hypothetical repeated sampling. We…

We have developed a frequentist approach for model selection which determines the consistency between any cosmological model and the data using the distribution of likelihoods from the iterative smoothing method. Using this approach, we…

What is a population? This review considers how a population may be defined in terms of understanding the structure of the underlying genetics of the individuals involved. The main approach is to consider statistically identifiable groups…

Performative predictions influence the very outcomes they aim to forecast. We study performative predictions that affect a sample (e.g., only existing users of an app) and/or the whole population (e.g., all potential app users). This raises…

Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal…

In finite population causal inference exact randomization tests can be constructed for sharp null hypotheses, i.e. hypotheses which fully impute the missing potential outcomes. Oftentimes inference is instead desired for the weak null that…

We study popularity for matchings under preferences. This solution concept captures matchings that do not lose against any other matching in a majority vote by the agents. A popular matching is said to be robust if it is popular among…

The modelling of evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations requires microscopic processes that determine how strategies spread. The exact details of these processes are often chosen without much further consideration. Different types…

There is a movement in design of experiments away from the classic randomization put forward by Fisher, Cochran and others to one based on optimization. In fixed-sample trials comparing two groups, measurements of subjects are known in…

The present paper discusses the problem of estimating the finite population mean of study variable in simple random sampling in the presence of non response and response error together. The estimators in this article use auxiliary…

A wide range of stochastic processes that model the growth and decline of populations exhibit a curious dichotomy: with certainty either the population goes extinct or its size tends to infinity. There is a elegant and classical theorem…

Contemporary statistical publications rely on simulation to evaluate performance of new methods and compare them with established methods. In the context of meta-analysis of log-odds-ratios, we investigate how the ways in which simulations…