相关论文: Unsupervised Discovery of El Nino Using Causal Fea…
Understanding the interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is essential to studying climate variabilities and predicting extreme weather events. Here, we develop a stochastic…
Understanding ENSO dynamics has tremendously improved over the past decades. However, one aspect still poorly understood or represented in conceptual models is the ENSO diversity in spatial pattern, peak intensity, and temporal evolution.…
El Nino is probably the most influential climate phenomenon on interannual time scales. It affects the global climate system and is associated with natural disasters and serious consequences in many aspects of human life. However, the…
This study aims to improve the accuracy of weather predictions by discovering spatial correlations between Earth observations and atmospheric states. Existing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems predict future atmospheric states at…
To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained…
The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…
Detecting extreme events in large datasets is a major challenge in climate science research. Current algorithms for extreme event detection are build upon human expertise in defining events based on subjective thresholds of relevant…
Although anomalous episodical warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific, dubbed El Ni\~no by Peruvian fishermen, has major (and occasionally devastating) impacts around the globe, robust forecasting is still limited to about six months…
Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large…
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important phenomena in climate. By studying the fluctuations of surface air temperature within one year between 1979-01-01 and 2016-12-31 of the region (30S-30N, 0E-360E) with…
The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method…
El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity is characterized based on the longitudinal location of maximum sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and amplitude in the tropical Pacific, as Central Pacific (CP) events are typically…
The El Ni{~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts profound influence on global climate variability, yet its prediction remains a grand challenge. Recent advances in deep learning have significantly improved forecasting skill, but the…
We present a new clustering algorithm that is based on searching for natural gaps in the components of the lowest energy eigenvectors of the Laplacian of a graph. In comparing the performance of the proposed method with a set of other…
Causal inference can estimate causal effects, but unless data are collected experimentally, statistical analyses must rely on pre-specified causal models. Causal discovery algorithms are empirical methods for constructing such causal models…
The low frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and…
El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term…
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest driver of interannual global climate variability and can lead to extreme weather events like droughts and flooding. Additionally, ENSO influences the mean global temperature with…
Given that observational and numerical climate data are being produced at ever more prodigious rates, increasingly sophisticated and automated analysis techniques have become essential. Deep learning is quickly becoming a standard approach…
The inaccessibility of controlled randomized trials due to inherent constraints in many fields of science has been a fundamental issue in causal inference. In this paper, we focus on distinguishing the cause from effect in the bivariate…