相关论文: Solar cycle 25: another moderate cycle?

The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…

Aims: We aim to determine the effect of converging flows on the evolution of a bipolar magnetic region (BMR), and to investigate the role of these inflows in the generation of poloidal flux. We also discuss whether the flux dispersal due to…

The present paper reviews results derived from statistical studies on solar activity indices. The prolonged minimum phase of cycle 23 raised the question of peculiarities inherent in cycle 23. The most important solar activity index is the…

We measure the axisymmetric transport of magnetic flux on the Sun by cross-correlating narrow strips of data from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained at a 96-minute cadence by the MDI instrument on the ESA/NASA SOHO spacecraft and then…

We present a study of the solar wind over different periods of the solar cycle, specifically focussing on the minimum between solar cycles 24 and 25, and the active, ascending phase of solar cycle 25. With the use of interplanetary…

One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…

Sunspots are obvious observable manifestations of the toroidal magnetic field generated through the dynamo in the convection zone. They appear in different sizes, having a wide distribution in their area. We analyse the sunspot group area…

With the unique database from Michelson Doppler Imager aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in an interval embodying solar cycle 23, the cyclic behavior of solar small-scale magnetic elements is studied. More than 13 million…

The solar dipole moment at cycle minimum is considered to be the most successful precursor for the amplitude of the subsequent cycle. Numerical simulations of the surface flux transport (SFT) model are widely used to effectively predict the…

Coupled flux transport and magneto-frictional simulations are extended to simulate the continuous magnetic field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from the start of Solar Cycle 23 in 1996. By simplifying the dynamics,…

There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…

An analysis of the tilt angles of the active regions in 15-24 activity cycles was performed. We used data from measurements of magnetic fields in the sunspot umbra in the period 1918 -2019 at the Mount Wilson Observatory, as well as the…

Polar fields in solar cycle 23 were about 50% weaker than those in cycle 22. The only theoretical models which have addressed this puzzle are surface transport models and flux-transport dynamo models. Comparing polar fields obtained from…

In order to match observed properties of the solar cycle, flux-transport dynamo models require the toroidal magnetic flux to be stored in a region of low magnetic diffusivity, typically located at or below the bottom of the convection zone.…

The south-north travel-time differences are measured by applying time-distance helioseismology to the MDI and HMI medium-degree Dopplergrams covering May 1996-April 2017. Our data analysis corrects for several sources of systematic effects:…

The data of sunspot numbers, sunspot areas and solar flare index during cycle 23 are analyzed to investigate the intermediate-term periodicities. Power spectral analysis has been performed separately for the data of the whole disk, northern…

Context: The Sun's polar fields and open flux around the time of activity minima have been considered to be strongly correlated with the strength of the subsequent maximum of solar activity. Aims: We aim to investigate the behavior of a…

We describe systematic changes in the centroid frequencies and the splitting coefficients as found using data from MDI on board SOHO, covering cycle 23. The data allow us to construct a seismic map of the evolving solar activity -- covering…

We apply a complex network approach to analyse the time series of five solar parameters, and propose an strategy to predict the number of sunspots for the next solar maximum, and when will this maximum will occur. The approach is based on…

The reconstruction and prediction of solar activity is one of the current problems in dynamo theory and global climate modeling. We estimate the Total Solar Irradiance for the next hundred years based on the Least Square Support Vector…