相关论文: Solar cycle 25: another moderate cycle?

Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport…

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for cycle 25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of…

The minimum - maximum method, belonging to the precursor class of the solar activity forecasting methods, is based on a linear relationship between relative sunspot number in the minimum and maximum epochs of solar cycles. In the present…

The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be…

Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…

Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…

The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…

After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of…

With recent advances in the field of machine learning, the use of deep neural networks for time series forecasting has become more prevalent. The quasi-periodic nature of the solar cycle makes it a good candidate for applying time series…

We have analyzed available full-disc data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board SoHO using the "ring diagram" technique to determine the behavior of solar meridional flows over solar cycle 23 in the outer 2% of the solar radius.…

Most of the intracyclic variability in the large-scale solar magnetic field comes from the equatorial dipole component of the solar magnetic field. The equatorial dipole component is highly sensitive to the longitude distribution of the…

In this work we introduce a new way of binning sunspot group data with the purpose of better understanding the impact of the solar cycle on sunspot properties and how this defined the characteristics of the extended minimum of cycle 23. Our…

We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…

We review the surface flux transport model for the evolution of magnetic flux patterns on the Sun's surface. Our underlying motivation is to understand the model's prediction of the polar field (or axial dipole) strength at the end of the…

Solar magnetic activity follows regular cycles of about 11 years with an inversion of polarity in the poles every 22 years. This changing surface magnetism impacts the properties of the acoustic modes. The acoustic mode frequency shifts are…

The evolution of solar surface magnetic fields is essential for understanding solar activity and the underlying dynamic process. The surface flux transport (SFT) model is a widely used and effective tool for simulating this evolution.…

The solar activity in the current, that is, the 24-th, sunspot cycle is analyzed. Cyclic variations in the sunspot number (SSN) and radiation fluxes in various spectral ranges have been estimated in comparison with the general level of the…

The solar dipole moment at activity minimum is a good predictor of the strength of the subsequent solar cycle. Through a systematic analysis using a state-of-the-art 2$\times$2 D solar dynamo model, we found that bipolar magnetic regions…

Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…

The solar magnetic activity cycle causes changes in the Sun on timescales that are relevant to human lifetimes. The minimum in solar activity that preceded the current solar cycle (cycle 24) was deeper and quieter than any other recent…