相关论文: Hierarchical multivariate space-time methods for m…

This study presents a spatiotemporal dual Bayesian model that examines both the occurrence and number of conflict fatalities using event-level data from Ethiopia (1997-2024), sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED)…

A robust multilevel functional data method is proposed to forecast age-specific mortality rate and life expectancy for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses a robust multilevel…

In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…

We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…

Falls during walking are a major health issue in the elderly population. Older individuals are usually more cautious, work more slowly, take shorter steps, and exhibit increased step-to-step variability. They often have impaired dynamic…

With COVID-19 affecting every country globally and changing everyday life, the ability to forecast the spread of the disease is more important than any previous epidemic. The conventional methods of disease-spread modeling, compartmental…

The Lee Carter modelling framework is widely used because of its simplicity and robustness despite its inability to model specific cohort effects. A large number of extensions have been proposed that model cohort effects but there is no…

Stroke is a major global health problem that causes mortality and morbidity. Predicting the outcomes of stroke intervention can facilitate clinical decision-making and improve patient care. Engaging and developing deep learning techniques…

All-cause mortality is a very coarse grain, albeit very reliable, index to check the health implications of lifestyle determinants, systemic threats and socio-demographic factors. In this work we adopt a statistical-mechanics approach to…

Aggregated health data such as claims data from health insurances become more and more available for research purposes. Estimates of excess mortality from prevalence and incidence of a chronic condition have only been possible for ages 50…

Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume…

In this paper, we introduce a new spatial model that incorporates heteroscedastic variance depending on neighboring locations. The proposed process is regarded as the spatial equivalent to the temporal autoregressive conditional…

Although the analysis of human mortality has a well-established history, the attempt to accurately forecast future death-rate patterns for different age groups and time horizons still attracts active research. Such a predictive focus has…

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…

In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between…

Characterising the stratosphere as a turbulent system, temporal fluctuations often show different correlations for different time scales as well as intermittent behaviour that cannot be captured by a single scaling exponent. In this study,…

A stroke occurs when an artery in the brain ruptures and bleeds or when the blood supply to the brain is cut off. Blood and oxygen cannot reach the brain's tissues due to the rupture or obstruction resulting in tissue death. The Middle…

Previous studies have suggested a link between alcohol outlets and assaultive violence. In this paper, we explore the effects of alcohol availability on assault crimes at the census tract level over time. The statistical analysis is…

Understanding how best to estimate state-level policy effects is important, and several unanswered questions remain, particularly about the ability of statistical models to disentangle the effects of concurrently enacted policies. In…