相关论文: Sequential Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Count…

This paper develops forecasting methodology and application of new classes of dynamic models for time series of non-negative counts. Novel univariate models synthesise dynamic generalized linear models for binary and conditionally Poisson…

We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma--Poisson construction---a natural choice for count data---and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties…

We develop deep Poisson-gamma dynamical systems (DPGDS) to model sequentially observed multivariate count data, improving previously proposed models by not only mining deep hierarchical latent structure from the data, but also capturing…

Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis is a formal approach to coherently synthesizing multiple predictive distributions into a single distribution. In sequential analysis, the computation of the synthesized predictive distribution has…

Multivariate count data are commonly encountered through high-throughput sequencing technologies in bioinformatics, text mining, or in sports analytics. Although the Poisson distribution seems a natural fit to these count data, its…

Multi-dimensional data frequently occur in many different fields, including risk management, insurance, biology, environmental sciences, and many more. In analyzing multivariate data, it is imperative that the underlying modelling…

We present new Bayesian methodology for consumer sales forecasting. With a focus on multi-step ahead forecasting of daily sales of many supermarket items, we adapt dynamic count mixture models to forecast individual customer transactions,…

Many kinds of data can be represented as a network or graph. It is crucial to infer the latent structure underlying such a network and to predict unobserved links in the network. Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodel (MMSB) is a promising…

Count data appears in various disciplines. In this work, a new method to analyze time series count data has been proposed. The method assumes exponentially decaying covariance structure, a special class of the Mat\'ern covariance function,…

We present a Bayesian non-negative tensor factorization model for count-valued tensor data, and develop scalable inference algorithms (both batch and online) for dealing with massive tensors. Our generative model can handle overdispersed…

Prediction modelling of claim frequency is an important task for pricing and risk management in non-life insurance and needed to be updated frequently with the changes in the insured population, regulatory legislation and technology.…

A gamma process dynamic Poisson factor analysis model is proposed to factorize a dynamic count matrix, whose columns are sequentially observed count vectors. The model builds a novel Markov chain that sends the latent gamma random variables…

In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB)…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely used for Bayesian inference in models of complex systems. Performance, however, is often unsatisfactory in models with many latent variables due to so-called poor mixing, necessitating development…

In a variety of application areas, there is a growing interest in analyzing high dimensional sparse count data, with sparsity exhibited by an over-abundance of zeros and small non-zero counts. Existing approaches for analyzing multivariate…

The Poisson distribution has been widely studied and used for modeling univariate count-valued data. Multivariate generalizations of the Poisson distribution that permit dependencies, however, have been far less popular. Yet, real-world…

Probabilistic approaches for handling count-valued time sequences have attracted amounts of research attentions because their ability to infer explainable latent structures and to estimate uncertainties, and thus are especially suitable for…

Spatial count data models are used to explain and predict the frequency of phenomena such as traffic accidents in geographically distinct entities such as census tracts or road segments. These models are typically estimated using Bayesian…

The premise of independence among subjects in the same cluster/group often fails in practice, and models that rely on such untenable assumption can produce misleading results. To overcome this severe deficiency, we introduce a new…

We focus on the development of diagnostic tools and an R package called MNB for a multivariate negative binomial (MNB) regression model for detecting atypical and influential subjects. The MNB model is deduced from a Poisson mixed model in…