相关论文: Improving PWR core simulations by Monte Carlo unce…

Convolutional neural networks have shown to achieve superior performance on image segmentation tasks. However, convolutional neural networks, operating as black-box systems, generally do not provide a reliable measure about the confidence…

Monte Carlo integration becomes prohibitively expensive when each sample requires a high-fidelity model evaluation. Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification methods mitigate this by combining estimators from high- and low-fidelity models,…

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

A change in the number of motor units that operate a particular muscle is an important indicator for the progress of a neuromuscular disease and the efficacy of a therapy. Inference for realistic statistical models of the typical data…

A wind turbines' power curve is easily accessible damage sensitive data, and as such is a key part of structural health monitoring in wind turbines. Power curve models can be constructed in a number of ways, but the authors argue that…

Inverse problems and, in particular, inferring unknown or latent parameters from data are ubiquitous in engineering simulations. A predominant viewpoint in identifying unknown parameters is Bayesian inference where both prior information…

Monte Carlo simulations are widely used in nuclear physics to model experimental systems. In cases where there are significant unknown quantities, such as energies of states, an iterative process of simulating and fitting is often required…

Phenomenological $R$-matrix has been a standard framework for the evaluation of resolved resonance cross section data in nuclear physics for many years. It is a powerful method for comparing different types of experimental nuclear data and…

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

Uncertainty quantification for full-waveform inversion provides a probabilistic characterization of the ill-conditioning of the problem, comprising the sensitivity of the solution with respect to the starting model and data noise. This…

The Monte Carlo differential operator sampling method is applied to the computation of sensitivity coefficients of unresolved resonance probability table cross sections. Three new analytical benchmarks for verifying unresolved resonance…

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

We present a Bayesian inference methodology for the estimation of orbital parameters on single-line spectroscopic binaries with astrometric data, based on the No-U-Turn sampler Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Our approach is designed to…

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

Safety evaluation of self-driving technologies has been extensively studied. One recent approach uses Monte Carlo based evaluation to estimate the occurrence probabilities of safety-critical events as safety measures. These Monte Carlo…

Accurate proton dose calculation using Monte Carlo (MC) is computationally demanding in workflows like robust optimisation, adaptive replanning, and probabilistic inference, which require repeated evaluations. To address this, we develop a…

Engineering risk is concerned with the likelihood of failure and the scenarios when it occurs. The sensitivity of failure probability to change in system parameters is relevant to risk-informed decision making. Computing sensitivity is at…

As robotic systems move from highly structured environments to open worlds, incorporating uncertainty from dynamics learning or state estimation into the control pipeline is essential for robust performance. In this paper we present a…

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…