相关论文: Improving Ice Sheet Model Calibration Using Paleoc…

In this paper we introduce adaptive time step control for simulation of evolution of ice sheets. The discretization error in the approximations is estimated using "Milne's device" by comparing the result from two different methods in a…

Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…

Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…

Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are…

Chemical multisensor devices need calibration algorithms to estimate gas concentrations. Their possible adoption as indicative air quality measurements devices poses new challenges due to the need to operate in continuous monitoring modes…

Ice storms are one of the most devastating natural hazards which have the potential to inflict significant damage to the built environment. The multi-hazard nature of ice events complicates the analysis of their induced risk due to their…

We develop a new efficient methodology for Bayesian global sensitivity analysis for large-scale multivariate data. The focus is on computationally demanding models with correlated variables. A multivariate Gaussian process is used as a…

``Online" data assimilation (DA) is used to generate a new seasonal-resolution reanalysis dataset over the last millennium by combining forecasts from an ocean--atmosphere--sea-ice coupled linear inverse model with climate proxy records.…

Nonlinear regression is a useful statistical tool, relating observed data and a nonlinear function of unknown parameters. When the parameter-dependent nonlinear function is computationally intensive, a straightforward regression analysis by…

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technologies, particularly in recent years, has led to the emergence of several large parameter artificial intelligence weather forecast models. These models represent a significant…

AI-based climate and weather models have rapidly gained popularity, providing faster forecasts with skill that can match or even surpass that of traditional dynamical models. Despite this success, these models face a key challenge:…

We consider in this paper the problem of estimating the mean function from a pair of paleoclimatic functional data sets, after one of them has been registered with the other. We show theoretically that registering one data set with respect…

We show that probabilistic weather forecasts of site specific temperatures can be dramatically improved by using seasonally varying rather than constant calibration parameters.

Climate science produces a wealth of complex, high-dimensional, multivariate data from observations and numerical models. These data are critical for understanding climate changes and their socioeconomic impacts. Climate scientists are…

With the rapid advancement in the performance of deep neural networks (DNNs), there has been significant interest in deploying and incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) systems into real-world scenarios. However, many DNNs lack the…

The quality of ground based astronomical observations are significantly affected by telluric conditions, and the search for best sites has led to the construction of observatories at remote locations, including recent initiatives on the…

Accurate high-resolution spatial and temporal wind speed data is critical for estimating the wind energy potential of a location. For real-time wind speed prediction, statistical models typically depend on high-quality (near) real-time data…

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…

Glacier modeling is crucial for quantifying the evolution of cryospheric processes. At the same time, uncertainties hamper process understanding and predictive accuracy. Here, we suggest improving glacier mass balance simulations for the…

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…