相关论文: VARX-L: Structured Regularization for Large Vector…

In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to…

Visual autoregressive (VAR) models have recently emerged as a promising alternative for image generation, offering stable training, non-iterative inference, and high-fidelity synthesis through next-scale prediction. This encourages the…

Many popular specifications for Vector Autoregressions (VARs) with multivariate stochastic volatility are not invariant to the way the variables are ordered due to the use of a Cholesky decomposition for the error covariance matrix. We show…

While it is widely recognised that linear (structural) VARs may fail to capture important aspects of economic time series, the use of nonlinear SVARs has to date been almost entirely confined to the modelling of stationary time series,…

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have emerged as a powerful paradigm for image synthesis by performing hierarchical next-scale prediction. However, VAR models are inherently prone to cascading error propagation, where subtle coarse-scale…

Interest in the study and analysis of dynamic processes in the social, behavioral, and health sciences has burgeoned in recent years due to the increased availability of intensive longitudinal data. However, how best to model and account…

We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we consider the…

This paper proposes a Vector Autoregression augmented with nonlinear factors that are modeled nonparametrically using regression trees. There are four main advantages of our model. First, modeling potential nonlinearities nonparametrically…

The use of latent diffusion models (LDMs) such as Stable Diffusion has significantly improved the perceptual quality of All-in-One image Restoration (AiOR) methods, while also enhancing their generalization capabilities. However, these…

In the era of big data, there is an increasing demand for new methods for analyzing and forecasting 2-dimensional data. The current research aims to accomplish these goals through the combination of time-series modeling and multilinear…

Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear…

High-dimensional financial time series often exhibit complex dependence relations driven by both common market structures and latent connections among assets. To capture these characteristics, this paper proposes Factor-Driven Network…

The problem of broad practical interest in spatiotemporal data analysis, i.e., discovering interpretable dynamic patterns from spatiotemporal data, is studied in this paper. Towards this end, we develop a time-varying reduced-rank vector…

We extend the standard VAR to jointly model the dynamics of binary, censored and continuous variables, and develop an efficient estimation approach that scales well to high-dimensional settings. In an out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we…

In this paper we propose a class of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) characterized by structural breaks (SVAR-WB). Together with standard restrictions on the parameters and on functions of them, we also consider constraints across…

We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be…

While the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model has received extensive attention for modelling complex time series, quantile VAR analysis remains relatively underexplored for high-dimensional time series data. To address this disparity, we…

Visual AutoRegressive (VAR) models based on next-scale prediction enable efficient hierarchical generation, yet the inference cost grows quadratically at high resolutions. We observe that the computationally intensive later scales…

State-space mixed-frequency vector autoregressions are now widely used for nowcasting. Despite their popularity, estimating such models can be computationally intensive, especially for large systems with stochastic volatility. To tackle the…