相关论文: State-space models' dirty little secrets: even sim…

Because most natural phenomena exhibit dependence at multiple scales like locations of earthquakes or forest fire occurrences, spatio-temporal single-scale point process models are unrealistic in many applications. This motivates us to…

Geostatistical modeling of the reservoir intrinsic properties starts only with sparse data available. These estimates will depend largely on the number of wells and their location. The drilling costs are so high that they do not allow new…

We explore the relationship among model fidelity, experimental design, and parameter estimation in sloppy models. We show that the approximate nature of mathematical models poses challenges for experimental design in sloppy models. In many…

For model-based estimation methods, the modeling that is as close to reality as possible makes a vital estimation result. In simple applications, it is sufficient to model a system with a single state space model. However, there are…

Stochastic diffusion is the noisy and uncertain process through which dynamics like epidemics, or agents like animal species, disperse over a larger area. Understanding these processes is becoming increasingly important as we attempt to…

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…

1. Anthropogenic actions cause rapid ecological changes, meaning that animals have to respond before they have time to adapt. Tools to quantify emergent spatial patterns from animal-habitat interaction mechanisms are vital for predicting…

Due to computational constraints, running global climate models (GCMs) for many years requires a lower spatial grid resolution (${\gtrsim}50$ km) than is optimal for accurately resolving important physical processes. Such processes are…

Plant biomass estimation is critical due to the variability of different environmental factors and crop management practices associated with it. The assessment is largely impacted by the accurate prediction of different environmental…

Global climate models represent small-scale processes such as clouds and convection using quasi-empirical models known as parameterizations, and these parameterizations are a leading cause of uncertainty in climate projections. A promising…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms represent a suite of robust computational methodologies utilized for state estimation and parameter inference within dynamical systems, particularly in real-time or online environments where data…

We propose a simple model for sample space reducing (SSR) stochastic process, where the dynamical variable denoting the size of the state space is continuous. In general, one can view the model as a multiplicative stochastic process, with a…

This paper focuses on a core task in computational sustainability and statistical ecology: species distribution modeling (SDM). In SDM, the occurrence pattern of a species on a landscape is predicted by environmental features based on…

Reliable forward uncertainty quantification in engineering requires methods that account for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In many applications, epistemic effects arising from uncertain parameters and model form dominate prediction…

We consider the problem of performing parameter and state inference in a state-space model (SSM) parametrized by a static parameter $\theta$. A popular idea to address this problem consists of incorporating $\theta$ in the state of the…

We consider the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using experimental data. To compensate the misspecification of the computer model and make more accurate predictions, a discrepancy function is often included and modeled…

Studying the effects of air-pollution on health is a key area in environmental epidemiology. An accurate estimation of air-pollution effects requires spatio-temporally resolved datasets of air-pollution, especially, Fine Particulate Matter…

Spatio-temporal data and processes are prevalent across a wide variety of scientific disciplines. These processes are often characterized by nonlinear time dynamics that include interactions across multiple scales of spatial and temporal…

1. Animal movement patterns contribute to our understanding of variation in breeding success and survival of individuals, and the implications for population dynamics. 2. Over time, sensor technology for measuring movement patterns has…