相关论文: Ensemble modeling of CMEs using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone…

Aims. We present the validation results for arrival times and geomagnetic impact of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), using the cone and spheromak CME models implemented in EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA).…

We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach…

Recently all major weather prediction centres provide forecast ensembles of different weather quantities which are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with various initial conditions and model…

Understanding and forecasting the geoeffectiveness of a coronal mass ejection (CME) is crucial for protecting infrastructure in the near-Earth space environment and on Earth. In this study, we present a novel fusion model to forecast the…

We present the study of two solar eruptive events observed on December 7 2020 and October 28 2021.Both events were associated with full halo CMEs and flares.These events were chosen because they show a strong non-radial direction of…

Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…

In this study, we analyze nine CMEs from the Sun to Earth as observed in both the remote sensing and in situ data sets. To date, this is the largest study of Earth impacting CMEs using the multi-view point remote sensing and in situ data.…

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…

We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…

The application of machine learning to the study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impacts on Earth has seen significant growth recently. Understanding and forecasting CME geoeffectiveness is crucial for protecting infrastructure…

Carbon intensity (CI) measures the average carbon emissions generated per unit of electricity, making it a crucial metric for quantifying and managing the environmental impact. Accurate CI predictions are vital for minimizing carbon…

When exposure measurement error (EME), confounder measurement error (CME), or both are present, health effect estimates regarding exposure mixtures and critical exposure time-window may not represent the true effects. For example, in air…

Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems…

The ability to predict the behavior of a wireless channel in terms of the frame delivery ratio is quite valuable, and permits, e.g., to optimize the operating parameters of a wireless network at runtime, or to proactively react to the…

Recently it has been suggested that the "twin-CME" scenario Li.etal2012 may be a very effective mechanism in causing extreme Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and in particular Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. Ding.etal2013…

Time-to-event analysis is a branch of statistics that has increased in popularity during the last decades due to its many application fields, such as predictive maintenance, customer churn prediction and population lifetime estimation. In…

The geo-effectiveness of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a critical area of study in space weather, particularly in the lesser-explored domain of CME-CME interactions and their geomagnetic consequences. This study leverages the SWASTi…

A 200-member ensemble developed at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes based on the Weather Research and Forecast atmospheric model tailored for the prediction of atmospheric rivers and associated heavy-to-extreme…

Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…