相关论文: Log-normal distribution based EMOS models for prob…

Amid growing interest in machine learning, numerous data-driven models have recently been developed for Reynolds-averaged turbulence modelling. However, their results generally show that they do not give accurate predictions for test cases…

Recent work has focused on data-driven learning of the evolution of unknown systems via deep neural networks (DNNs), with the goal of conducting long time prediction of the evolution of the unknown system. Training a DNN with low…

Recent statistical postprocessing methods for wind speed forecasts have incorporated linear models and neural networks to produce more skillful probabilistic forecasts in the low-to-medium wind speed range. At the same time, these methods…

Weather forecasting presents several challenges, including the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the high computational demands of numerical weather prediction models. To achieve the most accurate predictions, the ideal scenario involves…

Short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting can provide critical quantified uncertainty information of wind generation for power system operation and control. As the complicated characteristics of wind power prediction error, it would…

Machine learning methods have been shown to be effective for weather forecasting, based on the speed and accuracy compared to traditional numerical models. While early efforts primarily concentrated on deterministic predictions, the field…

Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as they permit to estimate the probability of weather events by…

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This…

In this work, we propose the Generative Latent Flow (GLF), an algorithm for generative modeling of the data distribution. GLF uses an Auto-encoder (AE) to learn latent representations of the data, and a normalizing flow to map the…

This work presents a hybrid and hierarchical deep learning model for mid-term load forecasting. The model combines exponential smoothing (ETS), advanced Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and ensembling. ETS extracts dynamically the main…

In fitting a mixture of linear regression models, normal assumption is traditionally used to model the error and then regression parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE). This procedure is not valid if the normal…

We propose a novel neural sequence prediction method based on \textit{error-correcting output codes} that avoids exact softmax normalization and allows for a tradeoff between speed and performance. Instead of minimizing measures between the…

An ensemble post-processing method is developed for the probabilistic prediction of severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and wind gusts) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines conditional generative adversarial…

Training an energy-based model (EBM) with maximum likelihood is challenging due to the intractable normalisation constant. Traditional methods rely on expensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to estimate the gradient of logartihm…

Wind has the potential to make a significant contribution to future energy resources. Locating the sources of this renewable energy on a global scale is however extremely challenging, given the difficulty to store very large data sets…

While energy-based models (EBMs) exhibit a number of desirable properties, training and sampling on high-dimensional datasets remains challenging. Inspired by recent progress on diffusion probabilistic models, we present a diffusion…

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…

Estimating accurate and well-calibrated predictive uncertainty is important for enhancing the reliability of computer vision models, especially in safety-critical applications like traffic scene perception. While ensemble methods are…

Neural network (NN) ensembles can reduce large prediction variance of NN and improve prediction accuracy. For highly nonlinear problems with insufficient data set, the prediction accuracy of NN models becomes unstable, resulting in a…

Spatio-temporal data and processes are prevalent across a wide variety of scientific disciplines. These processes are often characterized by nonlinear time dynamics that include interactions across multiple scales of spatial and temporal…