相关论文: Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nat…

What is a population? This review considers how a population may be defined in terms of understanding the structure of the underlying genetics of the individuals involved. The main approach is to consider statistically identifiable groups…

New and efficient methods based on noise addition to protect the confidentiality in population statistics have been developed, tested and applied in census production by various members of the European Statistical System over the past…

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…

In this article, a new mathematical model of human population growth as an autonomous non-Markov queuing system with an unlimited number of servers and two types of applications is proposed. The research of this system was carried out a…

Bayesian networks provide a method of representing conditional independence between random variables and computing the probability distributions associated with these random variables. In this paper, we extend Bayesian network structures to…

Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex…

We describe a new method for evaluating Bayes factors. The key idea is to introduce a hypermodel in which the competing models are components of a mixture distribution. Inference for the mixing probabilities then yields estimates of the…

The membership inference problem for publicly released statistics from a private dataset is well-studied. When developing and formally analyzing attack strategies, however, the focus has been on attacks that model the population using only…

Monitoring family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), is essential for family planning programming. The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) uses survey data to estimate and forecast family planning…

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…

Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that…

The present study deals with the estimation of the mean value of fecundability by fitting a theoretical distribution from the observed month of first conception of the married women who did not use any contraceptive method before their…

The determination of the shapes of mortality curves, the estimation and projection of mortality patterns over time, and the investigation of differences in mortality patterns across different small underdeveloped populations have received…

This paper reviews the growing field of Bayesian prediction. Bayes point and interval prediction are defined and exemplified and situated in statistical prediction more generally. Then, four general approaches to Bayes prediction are…

Demographic transition, characterized by declines in fertility and mortality, is a global phenomenon associated with modernization. While typical patterns of fertility decline are observed in Western countries, their applicability to other…

Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…

Small area estimates of population are necessary for many epidemiological studies, yet their quality and accuracy are often not assessed. In the United States, small area estimates of population counts are published by the United States…

Analyzing demographic data collected across multiple populations, time periods, and age groups is challenging due to the interplay of high dimensionality, demographic heterogeneity among groups, and stochastic variability within smaller…

Background: Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that leverage Bayes' theorem to portray dependencies and cause-and-effect relationships between variables. These networks have gained prominence in the field of health…