相关论文: Reconstructing past temperatures from natural prox…
Predicting historic temperatures based on tree rings, ice cores, and other natural proxies is a difficult endeavor. The relationship between proxies and temperature is weak and the number of proxies is far larger than the number of target…
A linearized energy-balance model for global temperature is formulated, featuring a scale-free long-range memory (LRM) response and stochastic forcing representing the influence on the ocean heat reservoir from atmospheric weather systems.…
Are temperature reconstructions possibly biased due to regionally differing density of utilized proxy-networks? This question is assessed utilizing a simple process-based forward model of tree growth in the virtual reality of two…
Great strides have been made in the field of reconstructing past temperatures based on models relating temperature to temperature-sensitive paleoclimate proxies. One of the goals of such reconstructions is to assess if current climate is…
Paleoclimate reconstruction on the Common Era (1-2000AD) provide critical context for recent warming trends. This work leverages integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) to conduct inference under a Bayesian hierarchical model using…
Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to understanding recent climate change. Most instrumentally recorded climate data are only available for the past 200 years, so proxy observations from natural archives are often…
We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms…
Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to deemphasize…
Several complicated non-linear models exist which simulate the physical processes leading to fluctuations in global climate. Some of these more advanced models use observations to constrain various parameters involved. However, they tend to…
It is shown that, the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations of the reconstructed temperature for the past 400,000 years (Antarctic ice cores data) are completely dominated by one-third subharmonic resonance, presumably related to Earth…
We propose a method to merge several paleoclimate time series into one that exhibits a consensus on the features of the individual times series. The paleoclimate time series can be noisy, nonuniformly sampled and the dates at which the…
We outline a model and algorithm to perform inference on the palaeoclimate and palaeoclimate volatility from pollen proxy data. We use a novel multivariate non-linear non-Gaussian state space model consisting of an observation equation…
Long memory and circulation patterns are potential sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Here, we infer one-dimensional nonlinear stochastic models of daily temperature which capture both long memory and external driving by the…
Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…
Many natural and physical processes display long memory and extreme events. In these systems, the measured time series is invariably contaminated by noise. As the extreme events display large deviation from the mean behaviour, the noise…
Climate field reconstructions (CFR) attempt to estimate spatiotemporal fields of climate variables in the past using climate proxies such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. Data Assimilation (DA) methods are a recent and promising new…
Accurate reconstruction of ambient temperature at death scenes is crucial for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) in forensic science. Typically, this is done by correcting weather station temperatures using measurements from the…
We introduce a method for reconstructing macroscopic models of one-dimensional stochastic processes with long-range correlations from sparsely sampled time series by combining fractional calculus and discrete-time Langevin equations. The…