相关论文: Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemic models with appl…

Spatio-temporal models are widely used in many research areas from ecology to epidemiology. However, most covariance functions describe spatial relationships based on Euclidean distance only. In this paper, we introduce the R package…

We study several bayesian inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models on networks from a statistical physics viewpoint. We derive equations which allow to accurately compute the posterior distribution of the time…

We develop a Bayesian non-parametric framework based on multi-task Gaussian processes, appropriate for temporal shrinkage. We focus on a particular class of dynamic hierarchical models to obtain evidence-based knowledge of infectious…

Spatio-temporal prediction of levels of an environmental exposure is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Our work is motivated by multiple studies on the spatio-temporal distribution of mobile source, or traffic related,…

Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…

The multivariate sequential ordinal model is investigated for use in the Bayesian analysis of spatio-temporal ordinal data. The sequential ordinal model likelihood is equivalent to a binary model conditional on unknown regression…

In this study, we introduce a novel and comprehensive extension of a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model that explicitly accounts for gender-specific effects of meteorological exposures. Leveraging fine-scale weekly mortality and…

One of the most important issues in the critical assessment of spatio-temporal stochastic models for epidemics is the selection of the transmission kernel used to represent the relationship between infectious challenge and spatial…

Spatial models are used in a variety research areas, such as environmental sciences, epidemiology, or physics. A common phenomenon in many spatial regression models is spatial confounding. This phenomenon takes place when spatially indexed…

An expectation-based scan statistic is proposed for the prospective monitoring of spatio-temporal count data with an excess of zeros. The method, which is based on an outbreak model for the zero-inflated Poisson distribution, is shown to be…

Predicting the spread of vector-borne diseases in response to incursions requires knowledge of both host and vector demographics in advance of an outbreak. Whereas host population data is typically available, for novel disease introductions…

Stochastic process models for spatiotemporal data underlying random fields find substantial utility in a range of scientific disciplines. Subsequent to predictive inference on the values of the random field (or spatial surface indexed…

We study the problem of modeling and inference for spatio-temporal count processes. Our approach uses parsimonious parameterisations of multivariate autoregressive count time series models, including possible regression on covariates. We…

The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…

Spatial connectivity is an important consideration when modelling infectious disease data across a geographical region. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared characteristics between regions, and human or vector movement.…

We consider the case of performing Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic compartment models, using incomplete time course data consisting of incidence counts that are either the number of new infections or removals in time intervals of…

Short-time human travel behaviour can be described by a power law with respect to distance. We incorporate this information in space-time models for infectious disease surveillance data to better capture the dynamics of disease spread. Two…

The analysis of case-control point pattern data is an important problem in spatial epidemiology. The spatial variation of cases if often compared to that of a set of controls to assess spatial risk variation as well as the detection of risk…

In many applications, survey data are collected from different survey centers in different regions. It happens that in some circumstances, response variables are completely observed while the covariates have missing values. In this paper,…

Spatio-temporal epidemic forecasting is critical for public health management, yet existing methods often struggle with insensitivity to weak epidemic signals, over-simplified spatial relations, and unstable parameter estimation. To address…