相关论文: Demand Modeling, Forecasting, and Counterfactuals,…

Proceeding from the concept of rational expectations, a new dynamic model of supply and demand in a single market with one supplier, one buyer, and one kind of commodity is developed. Unlike the cob-web dynamic theories with adaptive…

In many situations people make sequences of similar, but unrelated decisions. Such decision sequences are prevalent in many important contexts including judicial judgments, loan approvals, college admissions, and athletic competitions. A…

Counterfactual explanations study what should have changed in order to get an alternative result, enabling end-users to understand machine learning mechanisms with counterexamples. Actionability is defined as the ability to transform the…

We build simple computational models of belief dynamics within the framework of discrete-spin statistical physics models, and explore how suitable they are for understanding and predicting real-world belief change on both the individual and…

In school choice, students make decisions based on their expectations of particular schools' suitability, and the decision to gather information about schools is influenced by the acceptance odds determined by the mechanism in place. We…

Demand forecasting is a central component of the replenishment process for retailers, as it provides crucial input for subsequent decision making like ordering processes. In contrast to point estimates, such as the conditional mean of the…

Demand-Response (DR) programs, whereby users of an electricity network are encouraged by economic incentives to rearrange their consumption in order to reduce production costs, are envisioned to be a key feature of the smart grid paradigm.…

Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions.…

Many of the observations we make are biased by our decisions. For instance, the demand of items is impacted by the prices set, and online checkout choices are influenced by the assortments presented. The challenge in decision-making under…

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C have been true?") is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method of revaluating counterfactuals when the…

The behavior of users in relatively predictable, both in terms of the data they request and the wireless channels they observe. In this paper, we consider the statistics of such predictable patterns of the demand and channel jointly across…

Intertemporal choices involve making decisions that require weighing the costs in the present against the benefits in the future. One specific type of intertemporal choice is the decision between purchasing an individual item or opting for…

Counterfactual explanations are usually obtained by identifying the smallest change made to an input to change a prediction made by a fixed model (hereafter called sparse methods). Recent work, however, has revitalized an old insight: there…

In this study, I investigate the dynamic decision problem with a finite parameter space when the functional form of conditional expected rewards is misspecified. Traditional algorithms, such as Thompson Sampling, guarantee neither an…

We derive a formal, decision-based method for comparing the performance of counterfactual treatment regime predictions using the results of experiments that give relevant information on the distribution of treated outcomes. Our approach…

We address a practical problem ubiquitous in modern marketing campaigns, in which a central agent tries to learn a policy for allocating strategic financial incentives to customers and observes only bandit feedback. In contrast to…

Tabular foundation models achieve strong accuracy on choice prediction tasks, but their predictions often violate the economic logic those tasks require: raising a price sometimes increases predicted demand, and implied willingness-to-pay…

One of the exciting developments in the stated preference literature is the use of probabilistic stated preference experiments to estimate semi-parametric population distributions of ex ante returns and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a choice…

Structural models that admit multiple reduced forms, such as game-theoretic models with multiple equilibria, pose challenges in practice, especially when parameters are set-identified and the identified set is large. In such cases,…

We develop a Difference-in-Differences framework for discrete, ordered outcomes subject to underreporting. Such outcomes commonly arise in self-reported surveys on socially undesirable or stigmatized behaviors, where respondents may conceal…