相关论文: Sensitivity analysis for Bayesian hierarchical mod…

Priors in Bayesian analyses often encode informative domain knowledge that can be useful in making the inference process more efficient. Occasionally, however, priors may be unrepresentative of the parameter values for a given dataset,…

Conducting a randomization test is a common method for testing causal null hypotheses in randomized experiments. The popularity of randomization tests is largely because their statistical validity only depends on the randomization design,…

Bayesian inference can often be sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters of the prior or likelihood, yet defining and quantifying this sensitivity in a principled and computationally feasible way remains challenging in practice.…

Despite much research targeted at enabling conventional machine learning models to continually learn tasks and data distributions sequentially without forgetting the knowledge acquired, little effort has been devoted to account for more…

Accurate simulation of complex physical systems enables the development, testing, and certification of control strategies before they are deployed into the real systems. As simulators become more advanced, the analytical tractability of the…

We show that regularizing Bayesian predictive regressions provides a framework for prior sensitivity analysis. We develop a procedure that jointly regularizes expectations and variance-covariance matrices using a pair of shrinkage priors.…

Causal sensitivity analysis aims to provide bounds for causal effect estimates in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, existing methods for causal sensitivity analysis are per-instance procedures, meaning that changes to the…

Almost all fields of science rely upon statistical inference to estimate unknown parameters in theoretical and computational models. While the performance of modern computer hardware continues to grow, the computational requirements for the…

Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in the understanding of complex models. It helps to identify influence of input parameters in relation to the outputs. It can be also a tool to understand the behavior of the model and then can…

Hierarchical beta process has found interesting applications in recent years. In this paper we present a modified hierarchical beta process prior with applications to hierarchical modeling of multiple data sources. The novel use of the…

The dirichletprocess package provides software for creating flexible Dirichlet process objects. Users can perform nonparametric Bayesian analysis using Dirichlet processes without the need to program their own inference algorithms. Instead,…

We introduce a theoretical framework for understanding and predicting the complexity of sequence classification tasks, using a novel extension of the theory of Boolean function sensitivity. The sensitivity of a function, given a…

Previous work on sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks has focused on single parameters, where the goal is to understand the sensitivity of queries to single parameter changes, and to identify single parameter changes that would enforce…

Predictive process monitoring enables organizations to proactively react and intervene in running instances of a business process. Given an incomplete process instance, predictions about the outcome, next activity, or remaining time are…

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Observational studies provide invaluable opportunities to draw causal inference, but they may suffer from biases due to pretreatment difference between treated and control units. Matching is a popular approach to reduce observed covariate…

Fairness in artificial intelligence (AI) prediction models is increasingly emphasized to support responsible adoption in high-stakes domains such as health care and criminal justice. Guidelines and implementation frameworks highlight the…

We consider the problem where a modeller conducts sensitivity analysis of a model consisting of random input factors, a corresponding random output of interest, and a baseline probability measure. The modeller seeks to understand how the…

Unmeasured confounding remains a critical challenge in causal inference for the social sciences. This paper proposes a sensitivity analysis framework to systematically evaluate how unmeasured confounders influence statistical inference in…

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…