相关论文: Wind and Wave Extremes over the World Oceans From …
Global return values of marine wind speed and significant wave height are estimated from very large aggregates of archived ensemble forecasts at +240-h lead time. Long lead time ensures that the forecasts represent independent draws from…
A method for estimating return values from ensembles of forecasts at advanced lead times is presented. Return values of significant wave height in the North-East Atlantic, the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea are computed from archived…
To calculate the wind-waves in the Indian Ocean (IO), the wind field for the period from 1998 to 2009 was used, obtained from the NCEP/NOAA archive, and numerical model WAM (Cycle-4) was applied, modified by the new source function proposed…
Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the…
Estimating climate effects on future ocean storm severity is plagued by large uncertainties, yet for safe design and operation of offshore structures, best possible estimates of climate effects are required given available data. We explore…
To estimate the return values for wind and wind-waves time series, we propose to use the extrapolation of a polynomial approximation built for a small part of the tail of provision function estimated for the series considered. A possibility…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
A bivariate ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) technique for the postprocessing of ensemble forecasts of two-dimensional wind vectors is proposed, where the postprocessed probabilistic forecast takes the form of a bivariate normal…
Winds play an essential role in the climate system. In this study, we analyze the global pattern of the diurnal cycle of surface (10 m) winds from the ERA5 reanalysis data. We find that over the land and especially over sand dune regions,…
Near-surface atmospheric conditions can differ sharply over tens to hundreds of meters due to land cover and topography, yet this variability is absent from current weather analyses and forecasts. It is unclear whether such meter-scale…
Near-surface extreme winds profoundly affect human society, yet process-based understanding of their changes under climate forcings remains limited. This study systematically investigates the responses of high (HWE) and low (LWE) wind…
Emanuel's concept of maximum potential intensity (E-PI) estimates the maximum velocity of tropical cyclones from environmental parameters. At the point of maximum wind, E-PI's key equation relates proportionally the centrifugal acceleration…
We present initial results of a study on the variability of wind speeds across Europe over the past 140 yr, making use of the recent Twentieth Century Reanalysis data set, which includes uncertainty estimates from an ensemble method of…
Recent research shows that the surface wave energy dissipation, which is the vertical energy flux across the air-sea interface, can be calculated as the product of air density, reference wind speed cubed and an energy transfer coefficient…
A nonanticipative analog method is used for the long-term forecast of air temperature extremes. The data to be used for prediction include average daily air temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, mean dew point, maximum and minimum…
The receiver-to-source backazimuth of atmospheric infrasound signals is biased when cross-winds are present along the propagation path. Infrasound from 598 surface explosions from over 30 years in northern Finland is measured with high…
A 200-member ensemble developed at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes based on the Weather Research and Forecast atmospheric model tailored for the prediction of atmospheric rivers and associated heavy-to-extreme…
We compare the available wind resources for conventional wind turbines and for airborne wind energy systems. Accessing higher altitudes and dynamically adjusting the harvesting operation to the wind resource substantially increases the…
Weather forecasts are typically given in the form of forecast ensembles obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with varying initial conditions and physics parameterizations. Such ensemble predictions tend to be…
A combined high-resolution atmospheric downscaling and wave hindcast based on the ERA-40 reanalysis covering the Norwegian Sea, the North Sea and the Barents Sea is presented. The period covered is from September 1957 to August 2002. The…