相关论文: Assessing the consistency between short-term globa…

Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…

Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…

Climate predictions are only meaningful if the associated uncertainty is reliably estimated. A standard practice for providing climate projections is to use an ensemble of projections. The ensemble mean serves as the projection while the…

Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…

The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…

Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…

As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…

We analyze the occurrence and the values of record-breaking temperatures in daily and monthly temperature observations. Our aim is to better understand and quantify the statistics of temperature records in the context of global warming.…

Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and…

While the warming trends of the Earth's mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. In this letter we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are…

Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…

We test the scaling performance of seven leading global climate models by using detrended fluctuation analysis. We analyse temperature records of six representative sites around the globe simulated by the models, for two different…

There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…

This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the…

Two future scenarios that are not explicitly in the range of scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios) utilised by the IPCC. These two scenarios are the emissions trend under peak fossil fuel (for example, Mohr et al.,…

Climate models are often affected by long-term drift that is revealed by the evolution of global variables such as the ocean temperature or the surface air temperature. This spurious trend reduces the fidelity to initial conditions and has…

Global climate change is one of main concern of modern society. To estimate this change usually one estimates the global mean temperature. Measuring and calculating the Earth's average temperature are multi-steps complex processes which…

Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…

One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…