相关论文: A Gaussian Process Emulator Approach for Rapid Con…

This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for localization of multiple sources in the event of accidental hazardous contaminant release. The framework assimilates sensor measurements of the contaminant concentration with an integrated…

Gaussian process emulators of computationally expensive computer codes provide fast statistical approximations to model physical processes. The training of these surrogates depends on the set of design points chosen to run the simulator.…

In many inverse problems, model parameters cannot be precisely determined from observational data. Bayesian inference provides a mechanism for capturing the resulting parameter uncertainty, but typically at a high computational cost. This…

In groundwater contaminant remediation and risk assessment, it is important to identify parameters of the contaminant source and hydraulic conductivity field by solving an inverse problem. However, if the dimensionality of the inverse…

Measuring the impact of an environmental point source exposure on the risk of disease, like cancer or childhood asthma, is well-developed. Modeling how an environmental health hazard that is extensive in space, like a wastewater canal,…

We investigate the effect of cadmium (a toxic environmental pollutant) on the correlation structure of a number of urinary metabolites using Gaussian graphical models (GGMs). The inferred metabolic associations can provide important…

It is often desirable to build a statistical emulator of a complex computer simulator in order to perform analysis which would otherwise be computationally infeasible. We propose methodology to model multivariate output from a computer…

We present a novel approach for the analysis of multivariate case-control georeferenced data using Bayesian inference in the context of disease mapping, where the spatial distribution of different types of cancers is analyzed. Extending…

A Gaussian process (GP)-based methodology is proposed to emulate complex dynamical computer models (or simulators). The method relies on emulating the numerical flow map of the system over an initial (short) time step, where the flow map is…

The contaminated Gaussian distribution represents a simple heavy-tailed elliptical generalization of the Gaussian distribution; unlike the often-considered t-distribution, it also allows for automatic detection of mild outlying or "bad"…

Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…

Motivated by environmental policy questions, we address the challenges of estimation, change point detection, and uncertainty quantification of a causal exposure-response function (CERF). Under a potential outcome framework, the CERF…

We present a series of new open source deep learning algorithms to accelerate Bayesian full waveform point source inversion of microseismic events. Inferring the joint posterior probability distribution of moment tensor components and…

Estimating model parameters of a general family of cure models is always a challenging task mainly due to flatness and multimodality of the likelihood function. In this work, we propose a fully Bayesian approach in order to overcome these…

Scenario-based testing of automated driving functions has become a promising method to reduce time and cost compared to real-world testing. In scenario-based testing automated functions are evaluated in a set of pre-defined scenarios. These…

Mathematical models implemented on a computer have become the driving force behind the acceleration of the cycle of scientific processes. This is because computer models are typically much faster and economical to run than physical…

We present a cost-effective method for model calibration and solution of source inversion problems in atmospheric dispersion modelling. We use Gaussian process emulations of atmospheric dispersion models within a Bayesian framework for…

A new method is proposed for estimating the rate of fugitive emissions of particulate matter from multiple time-dependent sources via measurements of deposition and concentration. We cast this source inversion problem within the Bayesian…

We identify a new variational inference scheme for dynamical systems whose transition function is modelled by a Gaussian process. Inference in this setting has either employed computationally intensive MCMC methods, or relied on…

While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However,…