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A fundamental problem of causal discovery is cause-effect inference, learning the correct causal direction between two random variables. Significant progress has been made through modelling the effect as a function of its cause and a noise…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-27 Xiangyu Sun , Oliver Schulte

An important task in data analysis is the discovery of causal relationships between observed variables. For continuous-valued data, linear acyclic causal models are commonly used to model the data-generating process, and the inference of…

While probabilistic models describe the dependence structure between observed variables, causal models go one step further: they predict, for example, how cognitive functions are affected by external interventions that perturb neuronal…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2021-04-12 Sebastian Weichwald , Jonas Peters

The assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed (iid) is standard in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, in some settings, such as social networks, infectious disease modeling, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-02-06 Eli Sherman , Ilya Shpitser

The study of causality or causal inference - how much a given treatment causally affects a given outcome in a population - goes way beyond correlation or association analysis of variables, and is critical in making sound data driven…

数据库 · 计算机科学 2017-08-09 Sudeepa Roy , Babak Salimi

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-08-18 Jonas Peters , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Information Geometric Causal Inference (IGCI) is a new approach to distinguish between cause and effect for two variables. It is based on an independence assumption between input distribution and causal mechanism that can be phrased in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-02-12 Dominik Janzing , Bastian Steudel , Naji Shajarisales , Bernhard Schölkopf

The causal Markov condition (CMC) is a postulate that links observations to causality. It describes the conditional independences among the observations that are entailed by a causal hypothesis in terms of a directed acyclic graph. In the…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2010-02-23 Bastian Steudel , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schoelkopf

We analyze a family of methods for statistical causal inference from sample under the so-called Additive Noise Model. While most work on the subject has concentrated on establishing the soundness of the Additive Noise Model, the statistical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2014-02-06 Samory Kpotufe , Eleni Sgouritsa , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

We test recent claims that causal (driver/response) relationships can be deduced from interdependencies between simultaneously measured time series. We apply two recently proposed interdependence measures which should give similar results…

chao-dyn · 物理学 2009-10-31 R. Quian Quiroga , J. Arnhold , P. Grassberger

Establishing causal relations between random variables from observational data is perhaps the most important challenge in today's \blue{science}. In remote sensing and geosciences this is of special relevance to better understand the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-10 Adrián Pérez-Suay , Gustau Camps-Valls

This paper considers an extension of the linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) that determines the causal order among variables from a dataset when the variables are expressed by a set of linear equations, including noise. In…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-17 Joe Suzuki , Yusuke Inaoka

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the…

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal inference can help inferring properties of the 'unobserved joint distributions'…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-05-18 Dominik Janzing

The presence of interference, where the outcome of an individual may depend on the treatment assignment and behavior of neighboring nodes, can lead to biased causal effect estimation. Current approaches to network experiment design focus on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-22 Zahra Fatemi , Jean Pouget-Abadie , Elena Zheleva

We study the problems of estimating the past and future evolutions of two diffusion processes that spread concurrently on a network. Specifically, given a known network $G=(V, \overrightarrow{E})$ and a (possibly noisy) snapshot…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2023-10-31 Nouman Khan , Kangle Mu , Mehrdad Moharrami , Vijay Subramanian

Most traditional models of uncertainty have focused on the associational relationship among variables as captured by conditional dependence. In order to successfully manage intelligent systems for decision making, however, we must be able…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2015-05-19 David Heckerman , Ross D. Shachter

Distinguishing the cause and effect from bivariate observational data is the foundational problem that finds applications in many scientific disciplines. One solution to this problem is assuming that cause and effect are generated from a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-12-19 Quang-Duy Tran , Bao Duong , Phuoc Nguyen , Thin Nguyen

We propose a test of the conditional independence of random variables $X$ and~$Y$ given~$Z$ under the additional assumption that $X$ is stochastically nondecreasing in~$Z$. The well-documented hardness of testing conditional independence…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-24 Rohan Hore , Jake A. Soloff , Rina Foygel Barber , Richard J. Samworth