相关论文: A Generalization of the Noisy-Or Model

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…

Modern regression applications can involve hundreds or thousands of variables which motivates the use of variable selection methods. Bayesian variable selection defines a posterior distribution on the possible subsets of the variables…

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a tool to estimate the uncertainty of a neural network by considering a distribution over weights and sampling different models for each input. In this paper, we propose a method for uncertainty…

Given a set of experiments in which varying subsets of observed variables are subject to intervention, we consider the problem of identifiability of causal models exhibiting latent confounding. While identifiability is trivial when each…

We introduce a general framework that extends Bayesian inference by allowing the researcher to explicitly encode confidence in each source of uncertainty within the model. This mechanism provides a new handle for model design and…

Bayesian networks are a versatile and powerful tool to model complex phenomena and the interplay of their components in a probabilistically principled way. Moving beyond the comparatively simple case of completely observed, static data,…

Bayesian networks are now being used in enormous fields, for example, diagnosis of a system, data mining, clustering and so on. In spite of their wide range of applications, the statistical properties have not yet been clarified, because…

Complex systems are often modeled as Boolean networks in attempts to capture their logical structure and reveal its dynamical consequences. Approximating the dynamics of continuous variables by discrete values and Boolean logic gates may,…

Neural networks are powerful function approximators with tremendous potential in learning complex distributions. However, they are prone to overfitting on spurious patterns. Bayesian inference provides a principled way to regularize neural…

To model biological systems using networks, it is desirable to allow more than two levels of expression for the nodes and to allow the introduction of parameters. Various modeling and simulation methods addressing these needs using Boolean…

We present a proof-of-concept of a model comparison approach for analyzing spatio-temporal observations of interacting populations. Our model variants are a collection of structurally similar Bayesian networks. Their distinct Noisy-Or…

In many domains, collecting sufficient labeled training data for supervised machine learning requires easily accessible but noisy sources, such as crowdsourcing services or tagged Web data. Noisy labels occur frequently in data sets…

The paper introduces a generalization for known probabilistic models such as log-linear and graphical models, called here multiplicative models. These models, that express probabilities via product of parameters are shown to capture…

Boolean networks have been used in a variety of settings, as models for general complex systems as well as models of specific systems in diverse fields, such as biology, engineering, and computer science. Traditionally, their properties as…

Bayesian sociality models provide a scalable and flexible alternative for network analysis, capturing degree heterogeneity through actor-specific parameters while mitigating the identifiability challenges of latent space models. This paper…

We introduce a factor analysis model that summarizes the dependencies between observed variable groups, instead of dependencies between individual variables as standard factor analysis does. A group may correspond to one view of the same…

A low-complexity model for signal quality prediction in a nonlinear fiber-optical network is developed. The model, which builds on the Gaussian noise model, takes into account the signal degradation caused by a combination of chromatic…

Bayesian networks provide a probabilistic semantics for qualitative assertions about likelihood. A qualitative reasoner based on an algebra over these assertions can derive further conclusions about the influence of actions. While the…