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We study time-dependent mediators in survival analysis using a treatment separation approach due to Didelez [2019] and based on earlier work by Robins and Richardson [2011]. This approach avoids nested counterfactuals and crossworld…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-10 Søren Wengel Mogensen , Odd O. Aalen , Susanne Strohmaier

We consider mediated effects of an exposure, X on an outcome, Y, via a mediator, M, under no unmeasured confounding assumptions in the setting where models for the conditional expectation of the mediator and outcome are partially linear. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-08 Oliver Hines , Stijn Vansteelandt , Karla Diaz-Ordaz

Mediation analysis is a statistical approach that can provide insights regarding the intermediary processes by which an intervention or exposure affects a given outcome. Mediation analyses rose to prominence, particularly in social science…

Causal mediation analysis is a powerful tool for disentangling the total effect of a treatment into its direct effect on the outcome and its indirect effect mediated through an intermediate variable. However, in observational studies,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-28 Yuhao Deng , Haoyu Wei , Zhongzhe Ouyang

Mediation analysis, which started with Baron and Kenny (1986), is used extensively by applied researchers. Indirect and direct effects are the part of a treatment effect that is mediated by a covariate and the part that is not. Subsequent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-17 Judith J. Lok , Ronald J. Bosch

Mediation analysis with contemporaneously observed multiple mediators is an important area of causal inference. Recent approaches for multiple mediators are often based on parametric models and thus may suffer from model misspecification.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-30 Samrat Roy , Michael J. Daniels , Brendan J. Kelly , Jason Roy

Contrasting marginal counterfactual survival curves across treatment arms is an effective and popular approach for inferring the causal effect of an intervention on a right-censored time-to-event outcome. A key challenge to drawing such…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-29 Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Estimating the effect of intervention from observational data while accounting for confounding variables is a key task in causal inference. Oftentimes, the confounders are unobserved, but we have access to large amounts of additional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-13 Shachi Deshpande , Kaiwen Wang , Dhruv Sreenivas , Zheng Li , Volodymyr Kuleshov

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

Causal graphs may inform covariate adjustment for estimating causal effects and improve estimation efficiency by exploiting the graphical structure. In many applications, however, the target causal parameter may not be point-identified due…

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

The presence of intermediate confounders, also called recanting witnesses, is a fundamental challenge to the investigation of causal mechanisms in mediation analysis, preventing the identification of natural path-specific effects. Proposed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-10 Tat-Thang Vo , Nicholas Williams , Richard Liu , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Dıaz

Causal mediation analysis has been extended to estimate path-specific effects with multiple intermediate variables, isolating treatment effects through a mediator of interest while excluding pathways through its ancestors. Such analyses…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Yang Bai , Sihan Wu , Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui

Many open problems in machine learning are intrinsically related to causality, however, the use of causal analysis in machine learning is still in its early stage. Within a general reinforcement learning setting, we consider the problem of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-18 Tue Herlau , Rasmus Larsen

Proximal causal inference was recently proposed as a framework to identify causal effects from observational data in the presence of hidden confounders for which proxies are available. In this paper, we extend the proximal causal inference…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-01-27 AmirEmad Ghassami , Alan Yang , Ilya Shpitser , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

In applications, quantities of interest are often modelled in equilibrium or an equilibrium solution is sought. The presence of confounding makes causal inference in this setting challenging. We provide interpretable graphical models for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-27 Kai Z. Teh , Kayvan Sadeghi , Terry Soo

Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-07 Niloofar Moosavi , Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna

Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases.…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2022-11-15 Amir Feder , Nadav Oved , Uri Shalit , Roi Reichart

Several frameworks have been proposed for studying causal mediation analysis. What these frameworks have in common is that they all make assumptions for point identifications that can be violated even when treatment is randomized. When a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-23 Marie S. Breum , Vanessa Didelez , Erin E. Gabriel , Michael C. Sachs