相关论文: Theory of two-parameter Markov chain with an appli…

This paper proposes nonparametric two-sample tests for the direct comparison of the probabilities of a particular transition between states of a continuous time nonhomogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The proposed tests are…

A multi--state life insurance model is naturally described in terms of the intensity matrix of an underlying (time--inhomogeneous) Markov process which describes the dynamics for the states of an insured person. Between and at transitions,…

We propose a simple technique for verifying probabilistic models whose transition probabilities are parametric. The key is to replace parametric transitions by nondeterministic choices of extremal values. Analysing the resulting…

We propose a novel approach for computing committor functions, which describe transitions of a stochastic process between metastable states. The committor function satisfies a backward Kolmogorov equation, and in typical high-dimensional…

We present a novel method for computing reachability probabilities of parametric discrete-time Markov chains whose transition probabilities are fractions of polynomials over a set of parameters. Our algorithm is based on two key…

In this paper, we consider a general class of two-time-scale Markov chains whose transition rate matrix depends on a parameter $\lambda>0$. We assume that some transition rates of the Markov chain will tend to infinity as…

The aim of this paper is to approximate a finite-state Markov process by another process with fewer states, called herein the approximating process. The approximation problem is formulated using two different methods. The first method,…

Markov chain analysis is a key technique in formal verification. A practical obstacle is that all probabilities in Markov models need to be known. However, system quantities such as failure rates or packet loss ratios, etc. are often not --…

In this paper we introduce a method for resolving multi-parameter likelihoods by fixing all parameter values, but two. Evaluation of those two variables is followed by iteratively cycling through each of the parameters in turn until…

We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior…

Markov processes are used in a wide range of disciplines, including finance. The transition densities of these processes are often unknown. However, the conditional characteristic functions are more likely to be available, especially for…

We introduce the problem of formally verifying properties of Markov processes where the parameters are given by the output of machine learning models. For a broad class of machine learning models, including linear models, tree-based models,…

We propose Markov two-components processes (M2CP) as a probabilistic model of asynchronous systems based on the trace semantics for concurrency. Considering an asynchronous system distributed over two sites, we introduce concepts and tools…

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…

We discuss the efficient computation of performance, reliability, and availability measures for Markov chains; these metrics, and the ones obtained by combining them, are often called performability measures. We show that this computational…

We introduce a probabilistic framework for two-sample comparison based on a nonparametric process taking the form of a Markov model that transitions between a "divide" and a "merge" state on a multi-resolution partition tree of the sample…

Markov chains for probability distributions related to matrix product states and 1D Hamiltonians are introduced. With appropriate 'inverse temperature' schedules, these chains can be combined into a random approximation scheme for ground…

We examine a constrained Markov decision process under uncertain transition probabilities, with the uncertainty modeled as deviations from observed transition probabilities. We construct the uncertainty set associated with the deviations…

Suppose that a real valued process X is given as a solution to a stochastic differential equation. Then, for any twice continuously differentiable function f, the backward Kolmogorov equation gives a condition for f(t,X) to be a local…

For a Markov chain both the detailed balance condition and the cycle Kolmogorov condition are algebraic binomials. This remark suggests to study reversible Markov chains with the tool of Algebraic Statistics, such as toric statistical…