相关论文: Forecast verification for extreme value distributi…

Probabilistic prediction of stochastic dynamical systems (SDSs) aims to accurately predict the conditional probability distributions of future states. However, accurate probabilistic predictions tightly hinge on accurate distributional…

In this paper, we predict severity of extreme weather events (tropical storms, hurricanes, etc.) using buoy data time series variables such as wind speed and air temperature. The prediction/forecasting method is based on various forecasting…

In recent years, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool for high-resolution weather forecasting. While most current machine learning models focus on deterministic forecasts, accurately capturing the uncertainty in the…

The theoretical advances on the properties of scoring rules over the past decades have broadened the use of scoring rules in probabilistic forecasting. In meteorological forecasting, statistical postprocessing techniques are essential to…

Accurately representing surface weather at the sub-kilometer scale is crucial for optimal decision-making in a wide range of applications. This motivates the use of statistical techniques to provide accurate and calibrated probabilistic…

Probabilistic forecasting relies on past observations to provide a probability distribution for a future outcome, which is often evaluated against the realization using a scoring rule. Here, we perform probabilistic forecasting with…

With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…

Conventional methods for extreme event estimation rely on well-chosen parametric models asymptotically justified from extreme value theory (EVT). These methods, while powerful and theoretically grounded, could however encounter a difficult…

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

In this work, we investigate the reliability of the probabilistic binary forecast. We mathematically prove that a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for achieving a reliable probabilistic forecast is maximizing the Peirce skill score…

The recent developments in the machine learning domain have enabled the development of complex multivariate probabilistic forecasting models. Therefore, it is pivotal to have a precise evaluation method to gauge the performance and…

A new method is proposed for modelling the yearly maxima of sub-daily precipitation, with the aim of producing spatial maps of return level estimates. Yearly precipitation maxima are modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical model with a…

The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…

We quantify changes DeltaQ in 100-year return values for regional annual maxima and minima of near-surface atmospheric temperature from output of five CMIP6 models, for five of the Earth's desert regions, over the interval (2025,2125). We…

Extreme value statistics (EVS) concerns the study of the statistics of the maximum or the minimum of a set of random variables. This is an important problem for any time-series and has applications in climate, finance, sports, all the way…

Probabilistic regression models typically use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Cross-Validation to fit parameters. These methods can give an advantage to the solutions that fit observations on average, but they do not pay attention to…

This paper explores the implications of producing forecast distributions that are optimized according to scoring rules that are relevant to financial risk management. We assess the predictive performance of optimal forecasts from…

Weather forecasting requires not only accuracy but also the ability to perform probabilistic prediction. However, deterministic weather forecasting methods do not support probabilistic predictions, and conversely, probabilistic models tend…

Extreme value (EV) statistics of correlated systems are widely investigated in many fields, spanning the spectrum from weather forecasting to earthquake prediction. Does the unavoidable discrete sampling of a continuous correlated…

Many engineering systems are subject to spatially distributed uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty that can be modeled as a random field. Altering the mean or covariance of this uncertainty will in general change the statistical distribution of…