相关论文: Projecting human development and CO2 emissions

The recent discovery of long term growth constants in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, confirmed by two methods, enables analog methods for dating the beginning of climate change at ~1780 and projecting its near term future. Here we…

Despite well-meaning scenarios that propose global CO2 emissions will decline presented in every IPCC report since 1988, the trend of global CO2 increase continues without significant change. Even if any individual nation manages to flatten…

The method is proposed for estimation of regional CO2 and other greenhouses and pollutants production responcibility. The comparison of CO2 local emissions reduction data with world CO2 atmosphere data will permit easy to judge for overall…

The scientific data about the state of our planet, presented at the 2012 (Rio+20) summit, documented that today's human family lives even less sustainably than it did in 1992. The data indicate furthermore that the environmental impacts…

The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, the global surface may warm from 1.3 to 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100,…

Cumulative emissions accounting for carbon-dioxide (CO2) is founded on recognition that global warming in Earth System Models (ESMs) is roughly proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, regardless of emissions pathway. However, cumulative…

This paper presents a novel two-part pipeline for monitoring progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG's) related to Climate Action and Sustainable Cities and Communities. The pipeline consists of two main parts: the first…

India is expected to witness rapid growth in electricity use over the next two decades. Here, we introduce a custom regression model to project electricity consumption in India over the coming decades, which includes a bottom-up estimate of…

To limit global warming to pre-industrial levels, global governments, industry and academia are taking aggressive efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The evaluation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) emissions, however, depends on the…

This paper presents a comprehensive study leveraging Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression and Principal Component Regression (PCR) to analyze carbon dioxide emissions in a global dataset of 62 countries and their dependence on…

Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important,…

In this work, we propose an approach to teaching global warming adapted to the new high school curricula. The aim is to build a link between CO$_2$ emissions and the rise in the Earth's average temperature, based as far as possible on…

We analyze the growth rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide and human population, by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive…

In a prior study, I introduced a simple economic growth model designed to be consistent with general thermodynamic laws. Unlike traditional economic models, civilization is viewed only as a well-mixed global whole with no distinction made…

The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately,…

Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…

In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a…

The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term coevolution of…

Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined…

Von Hoerner (1975) examined the effects of human population growth and predicted agricultural, environmental, and other problems from observed growth rate trends. Using straightforward calculations, VH75 predicted the "doomsday" years for…