相关论文: Approximate Bayesian Computation for Astronomical …

A vital stage in the mathematical modelling of real-world systems is to calibrate a model's parameters to observed data. Likelihood-free parameter inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation, build Monte Carlo samples of the…

Sequential algorithms such as sequential importance sampling (SIS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) have proven fundamental in Bayesian inference for models not admitting a readily available likelihood function. For approximate Bayesian…

We derive the optimal proposal density for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) (or Population Monte Carlo, PMC). The criterion for optimality is that the SMC/PMC-ABC sampler maximise the effective…

Approximate Bayesian Computation has been successfully used in population genetics to bypass the calculation of the likelihood. These methods provide accurate estimates of the posterior distribution by comparing the observed dataset to a…

Inferring parameter distributions of complex industrial systems from noisy time series data requires methods to deal with the uncertainty of the underlying data and the used simulation model. Bayesian inference is well suited for these…

In this paper, we address the challenge of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms within the approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework, which often get trapped in local optima due to their inherent local exploration mechanism. We…

We consider the application of approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in the context of medical imaging data. We consider the parameter estimation of compartmental models in PET imaging analysis, and provide a simple ABC algorithm for its…

Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging.…

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models offer a rich framework for model based clustering. We consider the situation where the kernel of the mixture is available only up to an intractable normalizing constant. In this case, most of the…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods have become increasingly prevalent of late, facilitating as they do the analysis of intractable, or challenging, statistical problems. With the initial focus being primarily on the practical…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches…

Approximate Bayesian computation methods are useful for generative models with intractable likelihoods. These methods are however sensitive to the dimension of the parameter space, requiring exponentially increasing resources as this…

Rich data generating mechanisms are ubiquitous in this age of information and require complex statistical models to draw meaningful inference. While Bayesian analysis has seen enormous development in the last 30 years, benefitting from the…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods permit approximate inference for intractable likelihoods when it is possible to simulate from the model. However they perform poorly for high dimensional data, and in practice must usually be…

Piecewise diffusion Markov processes (PDifMPs) form a versatile class of stochastic hybrid systems that combine continuous diffusion processes with discrete event-driven dynamics, enabling flexible modelling of complex real-world hybrid…

In this paper, we propose a doubly stochastic spatial point process model with both aggregation and repulsion. This model combines the ideas behind Strauss processes and log Gaussian Cox processes. The likelihood for this model is not…

Approximate Bayesian Computation is widely used to infer the parameters of discrete-state continuous-time Markov networks. In this work, we focus on models that are governed by the Chemical Master Equation (the CME). Whilst originally…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides methods for Bayesian inference in simulation-based stochastic models which do not permit tractable likelihoods. We present a new ABC method which uses probabilistic neural emulator networks to…

We believe that a wide range of physical processes conspire to shape the observed galaxy population but we remain unsure of their detailed interactions. The semi-analytic model (SAM) of galaxy formation uses multi-dimensional…

Despite their widespread applications, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to express uncertainty, posing a challenge for reliable deployment in high stakes and safety critical domains like clinical diagnostics. Existing standard…