相关论文: The prediction method of similar cycles

The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects…

The linear relationship between the maximum amplitudes (R$_{max}$) of sunspot cycles and preceding minima (R$_{min}$) is one of the precursor methods used to predict the amplitude of the upcoming solar cycle. In the recent past this method…

A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aamin). The correlation between lnRm and lnaamin (r = 0.92) is…

The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be…

In this work we predict the maximum amplitude, its time of occurrence, and the total length of Solar Cycle 24 by linear regression to the curvature (second derivative) at the preceding minimum of a smoothed version of the sunspots time…

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24 and focusing on aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is…

The minimum - maximum method, belonging to the precursor class of the solar activity forecasting methods, is based on a linear relationship between relative sunspot number in the minimum and maximum epochs of solar cycles. In the present…

There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…

Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…

Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for…

Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…

Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…

Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative…

The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…

Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…

Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence…

We propose a simple method for prediction of the 11-year solar cycle maximum that is based on two relations. One of them is well known Waldmeier's rule that binds the amplitude of a cycle and the length of its ascending phase. The second…

The maximum of a solar cycle contain two or more peaks, known as Gnevyshev peaks. Studies of this property of solar cycles may help for better understanding the solar dynamo mechanism. We analysed the 13-month smoothed monthly mean…

The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide…

Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and…